重慶皓普電氣有(you)限(xian)公司
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以可再(zai)生能(neng)源為主(zhu)體(ti)的新型電力系(xi)(xi)統(tong)需要負荷側(ce)配(pei)合。為構建清潔、低(di)碳(tan)的現代能(neng)源體(ti)系(xi)(xi), 國(guo)內大力發展可再(zai)生能(neng)源,新能(neng)源出力的波動(dong)性對電力系(xi)(xi)統(tong)調(diao)峰能(neng)力提出了更高要求(qiu),系(xi)(xi) 統(tong)調(diao)節需求(qiu)凸顯。
此外,我國用電(dian)負(fu)荷(he)(he)“尖峰(feng)化”特性(xing)顯著,呈現(xian)夏/冬(dong)季(ji)較(jiao)高,春(chun)/秋季(ji)較(jiao)低的(de)(de)“兩峰(feng)兩谷”特點,據國網能源院能源電(dian)力規劃實驗(yan)室(shi),截至 2020 年(nian),各(ge)級電(dian)網高峰(feng)負(fu)荷(he)(he)持續時間較(jiao)低,超過最(zui)大用電(dian)負(fu)荷(he)(he) 95%的(de)(de)持續時間普遍低于(yu) 24 小時,對應電(dian)量不(bu)足全年(nian)用電(dian)量的(de)(de) 0.5%。短時高峰(feng)對電(dian)網調(diao)節提出了更多要求,調(diao)節壓力凸顯。從調(diao)節措施(shi)看, 單純依靠電(dian)源側/電(dian)網側的(de)(de)靈活性(xing)資(zi)源/儲能不(bu)足以保障電(dian)力系統安全運行,仍(reng)需(xu)負(fu)荷(he)(he)側調(diao)節措施(shi)配合(he)。
用戶側主動響應是新型電力系統區別于傳統電力系統的重要內容。電力需求響應是指讓用 戶能更多地主動參與電力市場,減少或者推移某高峰時段的用電負荷,從而保障電網穩定 運行的行為。2022 年 1 月,《“十四五”現代能源體系規劃》提出,力爭到 2025 年,電力需求側響應能力達到最大負荷的 3%~5%,其中華東、華中、南方等地區達到最大負荷的 5%左右。中國電機工程學會理事長舒印彪院士提出,我國應力爭在 2030 年,需求側響應 規模達到最大用電負荷的 5%-10%,在 2060 年達到 15%-20%。2022 年 9 月,國際能源署 (IEA)在《清潔能源進展跟蹤報告》中預測,根據 2050 年凈零排放情景,到 2030 年電動汽車車隊將超過 3 億輛,電動汽車將占新車銷量的 60%。長期看充電樁作為新能源車集聚負荷的接口,在用戶側響應領域重要性日益凸顯。
能源互聯網入口(kou),兼具信息與調節能力
充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)具備負(fu)(fu)荷信息和調節能(neng)(neng)力(li),終端覆蓋率高,是(shi)理(li)想的(de)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)互聯網接口(kou)。充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)具備 有(you)序(xu)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)功能(neng)(neng),協(xie)助負(fu)(fu)荷側需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)響應(ying),此外,后(hou)續 V2G 技術逐步成熟后(hou),電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽(qi)車作為(wei)可 移(yi)動的(de)分布(bu)式儲能(neng)(neng)單(dan)元,在用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)低(di)谷(gu)期(qi)低(di)價(jia)給(gei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽(qi)車充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)并儲存(cun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量,在用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)高峰(feng)期(qi)高 價(jia)把電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)“賣給(gei)”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網的(de)方式獲取價(jia)差收益,協(xie)助電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網削峰(feng)填谷(gu)。各地(di)政策(ce)支持或(huo)試點充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)參(can)與(yu)(yu)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)響應(ying)。目前,江(jiang)蘇、福(fu)建(jian)、山東等省份在出臺電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)需(xu)(xu)(xu) 求(qiu)相關政策(ce)時鼓勵充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)參(can)與(yu)(yu)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)響應(ying);上海(hai)、天津(jin)、江(jiang)蘇常州、浙(zhe)江(jiang)平湖等地(di)試點充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) 樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)參(can)與(yu)(yu)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)響應(ying)。根據 2020 年(nian)(nian) 6 月(yue)發布(bu)的(de)《電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽(qi)車與(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網互動的(de)商業前景—上海(hai)市(shi)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu) 響應(ying)試點案例》數據,在每(mei)年(nian)(nian)響應(ying) 5 次的(de)情(qing)況下(xia),私人充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)/專用充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)/換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站參(can)與(yu)(yu)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu) 響應(ying)的(de)內部收益率分別達到 9%/21%/101%,年(nian)(nian)均收益分別為(wei) 71/118/2520 元。
虛(xu)擬(ni)(ni)(ni)(ni)電(dian)廠(chang)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)加持(chi),智能(neng)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)助力(li)新(xin)能(neng)源汽(qi)車(che)充放(fang)電(dian)調(diao)節。虛(xu)擬(ni)(ni)(ni)(ni)電(dian)廠(chang)是指借助信(xin)息技(ji)(ji) 術(shu)和(he)軟件系統(tong)(tong),實(shi)(shi)現(xian)(xian)分(fen)布(bu)式(shi)(shi)電(dian)源、儲能(neng)、可調(diao)負荷(he)等(deng)多種分(fen)布(bu)式(shi)(shi)資(zi)源的(de)聚(ju)合和(he)協(xie)同優化的(de) 協(xie)調(diao)管理系統(tong)(tong)。通(tong)過采用(yong)“互(hu)聯網(wang)(wang)+5G+智能(neng)網(wang)(wang)關”先(xian)進通(tong)信(xin)技(ji)(ji)術(shu),實(shi)(shi)現(xian)(xian)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)調(diao)度(du)系統(tong)(tong)與用(yong) 戶(hu)側可調(diao)節資(zi)源的(de)雙向通(tong)信(xin),滿足電(dian)網(wang)(wang)調(diao)度(du)對聚(ju)合商平臺實(shi)(shi)時調(diao)節指令、在線實(shi)(shi)時監控等(deng) 技(ji)(ji)術(shu)要求。虛(xu)擬(ni)(ni)(ni)(ni)電(dian)廠(chang)增加區(qu)域的(de)調(diao)節能(neng)力(li),為(wei)用(yong)戶(hu)側可調(diao)節資(zi)源參與市場交易、負荷(he)側響(xiang)應、實(shi)(shi)現(xian)(xian)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)削峰填谷提(ti)供堅強技(ji)(ji)術(shu)保障(zhang)。V2G(新(xin)能(neng)源汽(qi)車(che)與電(dian)網(wang)(wang)能(neng)量互(hu)動(dong))等(deng)分(fen)布(bu)式(shi)(shi)能(neng)源接入虛(xu)擬(ni)(ni)(ni)(ni)電(dian)廠(chang)集(ji)中管理后,智能(neng)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)將進一步助力(li)新(xin)能(neng)源汽(qi)車(che)充放(fang)電(dian)調(diao)節。
新能(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)消耗(hao)(hao)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)升,新能(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)充(chong)(chong)放電(dian)(dian)調(diao)節(jie)創造價值藍海(hai)。根據中(zhong)國汽(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)工業 協(xie)會的(de)統計數據,2022年(nian)(nian)1-8月,新能(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)產(chan)銷分(fen)別(bie)達(da)到397萬輛(liang)(liang)和386萬輛(liang)(liang),同比(bi)(bi)(bi)+119.0% 和 114.6%。新能(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)產(chan)銷的(de)火熱疊(die)加(jia)(jia)動力(li)電(dian)(dian)池持(chi)續擴(kuo)容及充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)速度持(chi)續提(ti)高(gao),顯著提(ti)高(gao)了新能(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)消耗(hao)(hao)。2022 年(nian)(nian) 1-8 月全(quan)(quan)國充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)總量(liang)(liang)(liang)達(da)到 129.4 億 kWh,同比(bi)(bi)(bi)+89.8%;2022 年(nian)(nian) 8 月全(quan)(quan)國充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)總量(liang)(liang)(liang)占(zhan)全(quan)(quan)社會用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)比(bi)(bi)(bi)例達(da)到 0.27%,同比(bi)(bi)(bi)+0.14pct,實現新能(neng)源(yuan) 汽(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)與用(yong)電(dian)(dian)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)的(de)雙提(ti)升。伴隨(sui)新能(neng)源(yuan)機組(zu)大(da)量(liang)(liang)(liang)接入電(dian)(dian)網,調(diao)節(jie)能(neng)力(li)亟待(dai)提(ti)升,調(diao) 節(jie)價值日益凸顯;疊(die)加(jia)(jia)新能(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)消耗(hao)(hao)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)有望持(chi)續攀升,新能(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)充(chong)(chong)放電(dian)(dian)調(diao)節(jie)技(ji)術將(jiang)會在調(diao)節(jie)電(dian)(dian)網負(fu)荷、維持(chi)電(dian)(dian)網的(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)平(ping)衡中(zhong)發揮重要(yao)作用(yong)。
行業(ye)走(zou)向規范化,“新基建(jian)”迎來(lai)新機遇(yu)
政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)主(zhu)導(dao)逐步轉(zhuan)為市(shi)場主(zhu)導(dao),行(xing)業(ye)內生(sheng)動(dong)力(li)增長(chang)(chang)強(qiang)勁。我國充(chong)電樁(zhuang)行(xing)業(ye)發展大致(zhi)分為三個 階(jie)(jie)(jie)段,第一個階(jie)(jie)(jie)段為 2006-2014 年的(de)(de)萌芽期(qi),這一階(jie)(jie)(jie)段的(de)(de)特征(zheng)是政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)主(zhu)導(dao)項(xiang)目建設(she),項(xiang)目 自(zi)主(zhu)盈(ying)利能力(li)不足,行(xing)業(ye)發展極(ji)度依賴政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)補貼(tie)。第二階(jie)(jie)(jie)段為 2015-2019 年的(de)(de)快速增長(chang)(chang)期(qi) 和(he)洗牌期(qi),這一階(jie)(jie)(jie)段的(de)(de)特征(zheng)是民(min)營資本在政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)吸引下(xia)紛紛入局(ju),形(xing)成國有、民(min)營、混合所 有制并存的(de)(de)產業(ye)格局(ju);但是低端無(wu)序(xu)的(de)(de)“野(ye)蠻生(sheng)長(chang)(chang)”過后(hou)(hou)壞樁(zhuang)、“僵尸樁(zhuang)”、運(yun)維服(fu)務缺(que)位 等問題不斷凸顯,在 2016 年新國標開始(shi)實施后(hou)(hou)行(xing)業(ye)迎來洗牌,行(xing)業(ye)發展愈加(jia)規范。第三個階(jie)(jie)(jie)段為 2020 年至(zhi)今的(de)(de)發展關鍵(jian)期(qi),這一階(jie)(jie)(jie)段的(de)(de)特征(zheng)是政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)補貼(tie)由(you)充(chong)電樁(zhuang)制造端轉(zhuan)向運(yun)營端, 整體補貼(tie)邏輯由(you)“量”到“質”的(de)(de)變動(dong)帶動(dong)了高附加(jia)值業(ye)務擴(kuo)展,行(xing)業(ye)盈(ying)利引來拐點,內生(sheng)增長(chang)(chang)動(dong)力(li)增長(chang)(chang)強(qiang)勁,在“新基建”背(bei)景下(xia)行(xing)業(ye)發展迎來新機遇(yu)。
“新基建”迎來新機遇,多地區明確充電樁遠期發展目標。我國中央及地方政府出臺了多 項保障政策,加快推進充電基礎設施建設。2022 年 1 月,發改委出臺《關于進一步提升電 動汽車充電基礎設施保障能力的實施意見》,提出到 2025 年,部分地區高速公路服務區快充站覆蓋率不低于 80%,形成能夠滿足超 2000 萬電動汽車充電需求的充電基礎設施體系。北京、上海、廣東、山東等省份也提出“十四五”期間電動汽車充電樁建設發展目標,通過政策推動為充電樁覆蓋率提升及充電樁行業未來發展提供重要動力。
充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)可以(yi)(yi)(yi)按照(zhao)(zhao)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電方式(shi)、充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電接口(kou)數、安裝(zhuang)(zhuang)地點(dian)、安裝(zhuang)(zhuang)方式(shi)四(si)種方式(shi)分(fen)類(lei)(lei)(lei)。按照(zhao)(zhao)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電方 式(shi)分(fen)類(lei)(lei)(lei),可以(yi)(yi)(yi)分(fen)為(wei)(wei)(wei)交流(liu)、直流(liu)、交直流(liu)一(yi)(yi)(yi)體充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang);按照(zhao)(zhao)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電接口(kou)數分(fen)類(lei)(lei)(lei),可以(yi)(yi)(yi)分(fen)為(wei)(wei)(wei)一(yi)(yi)(yi)樁(zhuang) 一(yi)(yi)(yi)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、一(yi)(yi)(yi)樁(zhuang)多(duo)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong);按照(zhao)(zhao)安裝(zhuang)(zhuang)地點(dian)分(fen)類(lei)(lei)(lei),可以(yi)(yi)(yi)分(fen)為(wei)(wei)(wei)公(gong)用充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)與(yu)專(zhuan)用充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang);按照(zhao)(zhao)安裝(zhuang)(zhuang)方式(shi)分(fen)類(lei)(lei)(lei),可以(yi)(yi)(yi)分(fen)為(wei)(wei)(wei)落地式(shi)與(yu)掛(gua)壁式(shi)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)。公(gong)共(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)面(mian)向(xiang)社會車(che)(che)輛(liang)(全部(bu)或部(bu)分(fen))提供(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電服(fu)務,公(gong)共(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)下屬(shu)兩個(ge)分(fen)支分(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)(wei)公(gong)用 充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)和專(zhuan)用充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang),其(qi)中公(gong)共(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)全部(bu)開放,快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)樁(zhuang)居多(duo);而專(zhuan)用樁(zhuang)面(mian)向(xiang)部(bu)分(fen)特定的 社會車(che)(che)輛(liang)服(fu)務,一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)安裝(zhuang)(zhuang)到單位(wei)內部(bu)場合,僅供(gong)單位(wei)內部(bu)人(ren)員(yuan)使(shi)用。而私(si)(si)人(ren)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)主要供(gong) 私(si)(si)家車(che)(che)使(shi)用,且一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)為(wei)(wei)(wei)慢充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)。共(gong)享私(si)(si)樁(zhuang)的概念介于(yu)公(gong)共(gong)樁(zhuang)和私(si)(si)人(ren)樁(zhuang)之間,屬(shu)于(yu)個(ge)人(ren)為(wei)(wei)(wei)滿足私(si)(si)人(ren)車(che)(che)輛(liang)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電而進行(xing)自建,且可向(xiang)其(qi)他車(che)(che)輛(liang)提供(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電服(fu)務的充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)。
設(she)備(bei)端前期(qi)話語權(quan)較高,運(yun)(yun)營側重要性逐步凸顯。傳統充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)產(chan)業(ye)鏈的基本業(ye)務(wu)模(mo)式(shi)是上(shang) 游制造(zao)商(shang)加裝配電(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)和濾波器等器件后,組成充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)銷售(shou)給(gei)中(zhong)(zhong)游的運(yun)(yun)營商(shang),然(ran)后由運(yun)(yun)營 商(shang)租賃(lin)或出售(shou)給(gei)終(zhong)端用戶,獲(huo)取收(shou)入;前期(qi)運(yun)(yun)營端盈利較差,產(chan)業(ye)鏈的重心(xin)主要在設(she)備(bei)供 應端。隨(sui)著汽車保(bao)有量增加,充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)作為能源互(hu)聯(lian)網的重要入口,產(chan)業(ye)鏈的融(rong)合程度有所 提(ti)升,話語權(quan)呈現向運(yun)(yun)營端集中(zhong)(zhong)的態(tai)勢,運(yun)(yun)營主體范圍也相對擴(kuo)大(da)(da)。支持端主要向運(yun)(yun)營端 提(ti)供信息技術支持,利用大(da)(da)數據相關技術向充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)/站的精(jing)細化運(yun)(yun)營賦能,是產(chan)業(ye)鏈中(zhong)(zhong)的新生力量。
制(zhi)造端(duan):模塊與信(xin)息升級,行業(ye)躍千億市場
模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)升(sheng)級與信息升(sheng)級助力能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)建設,充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)價格下降利好制造端(duan)發展。與傳統燃 油(you)汽車相比(bi),新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽車出行更加依賴電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力輸送、場地建設、充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)投放(fang)等基礎配套產業 的發展。高壓直流充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)由于具備充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)時(shi)間短優勢(shi),逐漸成為(wei)市場主流選擇,同(tong)時(shi)能夠加 速新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽車的普及(ji)。伴(ban)隨 5G、互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)、智能網(wang)關等先(xian)進通信技(ji)(ji)術(shu)的迅速發展,以及(ji) V2G 技(ji)(ji)術(shu)瓶頸(jing)的不斷突破,充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)所具備的功能單(dan)元持(chi)續拓展,充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)系統運營更加智能化,我 們認為(wei)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)是未來(lai)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)的一大(da)重(zhong)要入口,伴(ban)隨上游充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)價格下降,以及(ji)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) 樁(zhuang)(zhuang)智能化、信息化升(sheng)級,行業有望迎來(lai)新(xin)的發展機遇。
車樁比有提升空間,分布呈現長尾(wei)效應
車樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)緊張持(chi)續改(gai)善,充(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)需求依(yi)然強(qiang)烈。根據中(zhong)國(guo)充(chong)電(dian)聯盟(meng)的統(tong)計(ji)數據,2022 年 1-8 月,中(zhong)國(guo)充(chong)電(dian)基(ji)礎設(she)施(shi)增量(liang)為 169.8 萬臺(tai),同比(bi)(bi)(bi) 2021 年 1-8 月增長 300.5%。截止 2022 年 8 月,全國(guo)充(chong)電(dian)基(ji)礎設(she)施(shi)累計(ji)數量(liang)為 431.5 萬臺(tai),全國(guo)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽車保(bao)有(you)量(liang)達(da) 1170 萬輛, 2022 年 1-8 月車樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)達(da) 2.7:1。2022 年 1-8 月,車樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)增量(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)達(da)到 2.3:1,“一樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)難求”的局 面持(chi)續改(gai)善,但是距離發改(gai)委提出的到 2025 年中(zhong)國(guo)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽車與充(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)的車樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)達(da)到 1:1 的目標仍(reng)然存在較大差距。伴隨下(xia)游新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽車銷量(liang)的持(chi)續增長,充(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)要完成車樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)目 標仍(reng)需擴大充(chong)電(dian)設(she)施(shi)覆(fu)蓋范圍(wei)。
分省市來(lai)看,省市間(jian)充(chong)電樁(zhuang)保有量(liang)(liang)呈現(xian)長尾效應。截至 22 年 8 月,國(guo)內(nei)公(gong)共樁(zhuang)保有量(liang)(liang)最(zui)多 的(de) TOP10 省份為廣東(dong)、江蘇、上海、浙(zhe)江、北京、湖北、山東(dong)、安徽、河(he)南、福建,占(zhan)據(ju) 了全國(guo)公(gong)共樁(zhuang)總量(liang)(liang)的(de) 71.4%。充(chong)電電量(liang)(liang)最(zui)高的(de)省份基本(ben)與(yu)之(zhi)重合,22 年 8 月充(chong)電量(liang)(liang)最(zui)高的(de)省市為廣東(dong)省,充(chong)電量(liang)(liang)達到了 5.5 億 kWh,用(yong)電主體主要(yao)是公(gong)交車(che)和乘用(yong)車(che),環衛物流車(che)、出租車(che)等其他類型車(che)輛(liang)充(chong)電量(liang)(liang)占(zhan)比(bi)較小。
充電時長仍(reng)為痛點,短時充電需(xu)求凸顯
充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)速(su)度(du)慢引發續航焦慮(lv)(lv),充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)時(shi)間(jian)長(chang)仍為(wei)(wei)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)車(che)(che)行業(ye)(ye)痛點。當前水(shui)平下,車(che)(che)輛通(tong)過(guo)功 率為(wei)(wei) 3-7kW 的(de)(de)(de)(de)交(jiao)流樁充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),需要 6-8 小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)充(chong)(chong)滿,通(tong)過(guo)功率為(wei)(wei) 30-200kW 的(de)(de)(de)(de)直流樁也(ye)要 1-2 小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)才(cai)(cai)能(neng)充(chong)(chong)滿,距離燃油車(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)加油速(su)度(du)還存在(zai)(zai)很大(da)(da)差距。因此,解決充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)速(su)度(du)問題是新(xin)能(neng) 源(yuan)車(che)(che)行業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)關注重點。一二線(xian)(xian)城市里(li)(li)(li)程焦慮(lv)(lv)尤甚,短時(shi)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需求凸顯。據汽車(che)(che)之家研究院聯合(he) BCG 于(yu) 22 年 8 月(yue) 發布的(de)(de)(de)(de)《充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行為(wei)(wei)洞察與消(xiao)費空間(jian)探索》報告中對近 3000 名新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)車(che)(che)車(che)(che)主線(xian)(xian)上問卷結果(guo)顯 示, 一線(xian)(xian)、二線(xian)(xian)城市由于(yu)地域更(geng)廣、出行范圍更(geng)大(da)(da),“里(li)(li)(li)程焦慮(lv)(lv)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)情況更(geng)為(wei)(wei)顯著(zhu)。超過(guo) 一半的(de)(de)(de)(de)一線(xian)(xian)/新(xin)一線(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)用(yong)戶在(zai)(zai)剩(sheng)(sheng)余里(li)(li)(li)程 50 公(gong)(gong)里(li)(li)(li)以(yi)上的(de)(de)(de)(de)時(shi)候就會選(xuan)擇充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),并且充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)時(shi)間(jian)大(da)(da)部分集中在(zai)(zai) 2 小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)以(yi)內。多數(shu)低(di)線(xian)(xian)城市車(che)(che)主在(zai)(zai)剩(sheng)(sheng)余里(li)(li)(li)程在(zai)(zai) 30-50 公(gong)(gong)里(li)(li)(li)時(shi)、甚至在(zai)(zai) 30 公(gong)(gong)里(li)(li)(li)以(yi)內才(cai)(cai)選(xuan)擇充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),且有 43%的(de)(de)(de)(de)四/五線(xian)(xian)城市用(yong)戶單次充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)時(shi)長(chang)超過(guo) 2 小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)。
高壓快充時代來(lai)臨(lin),直流占比快速提升
高壓快充時代來臨,充電慢問題有望迎來轉機。電動車充電方式可分為交流慢充和直流快 充,要想實現快充需使用直流快充。根據 P(功率)=U(電壓)*I(電流),提升充電功率 可分為提升電壓與提升電流兩種技術路線。高電壓的優勢在于在同樣的功率下 :
1)有助于減少發熱量(根據 Q(熱量)=I(電流)2R(電阻)t(時間)),提升電池安全性能以及能量 轉換效率;
2)能保持較長的高倍率充電區間。由于充電過程并非線性,高電流方案中,由 于發熱問題,充電功率無法長時間保持峰值,因此即使峰值功率兩種技術路線相同,但高 電壓快充平均功率較高;
3)低倍率充電能減少電池材料損耗,延長電池循環壽命;
4)大 電流(liu)路線需(xu)要配套使用直(zhi)徑更粗線束以承載更大電流(liu),提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)成本且降低能量密度。但(dan)提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng) 電壓需(xu)要對(dui)電驅系統(tong)、空(kong)調壓縮機等元器(qi)件重新(xin)設(she)計(ji),以適應高壓平臺,杜絕高壓失控風險。
以保時(shi)(shi)捷 Taycan 為例,為適(shi)配 800V 高電壓,其內部三電系(xi)統做了較多改造。同時(shi)(shi)充(chong)電樁(zhuang)端(duan)的充(chong)電槍、接觸器(qi)、線束(shu)等零部件也需(xu)要做相應升級。因(yin)此高電壓快(kuai)充(chong)前期普及成本(ben)相對較高,需(xu)要車企與充(chong)電樁(zhuang)基礎設施的共同配合。
高(gao)壓(ya)(ya)快充顯著(zhu)縮(suo)短充電(dian)時長,提(ti)升用戶充電(dian)感(gan)受。高(gao)電(dian)壓(ya)(ya)快充主要分為(wei)三(san)類:純(chun) 800V 電(dian)壓(ya)(ya) 平(ping)臺、800V 電(dian)池(chi)組搭(da)載 DC/DC 轉換器和兩個 400V 低壓(ya)(ya)電(dian)池(chi)組。目前 800V 高(gao)壓(ya)(ya)已經(jing)成為(wei) 市場主流,國內外多家車企加速布局(ju) 800V 高(gao)壓(ya)(ya)快充平(ping)臺,高(gao)達(da) 300-500kW 的充電(dian)功(gong)率僅(jin)需 6-10 分鐘(zhong)就能(neng)(neng)迅速補能(neng)(neng),補能(neng)(neng)速度已經(jing)可以媲(pi)美燃油車。充電(dian)時間縮(suo)短將(jiang)顯著(zhu)改善出行體驗(yan),助推(tui)新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)車普及。
直流充電樁有效提高充電效率,協助減少充電時間。充電樁按充電方式可以分為交流充電 樁、直流充電樁和交直流一體充電樁。與直流充電樁相比,交流充電樁需要車載充電機自己進行變壓整流,要受限于車載充電機功率,一般功率較小,以 3.3 kW 和 7kW 居多。而 直流充電樁的充電功率更高,通常在 30kW-120kW,可以顯著縮短充電時長。通常交流充電樁充滿電需要 8-10 小時,常用于私人家用停車位;而直流充電樁充滿電只需 20-90 分鐘, 因此多用于公共停車場、商城等對充電效率有較高要求的場景。
直流充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁占比(bi)快(kuai)速(su)提(ti)(ti)升。根(gen)據中國充(chong)(chong)電(dian)聯(lian)盟(meng)數據,截止 2021 年(nian)(nian)底(di)中國公共(gong)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁共(gong) 114.7 萬臺(tai),其中直流充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁 47.0 萬臺(tai),占比(bi) 40.98%;截止 22 年(nian)(nian) 8 月中國公共(gong)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁共(gong) 162.3 萬臺(tai),其中直流充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁 70.2 萬臺(tai)(相比(bi) 21 年(nian)(nian)底(di)增加(jia) 49.36%),占比(bi) 43.25%(相比(bi) 21 年(nian)(nian) 底(di)提(ti)(ti)升 2.27pct)。
克服(fu)充電時(shi)空限制,新技(ji)術全(quan)方位革新
無(wu)線(xian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)機器(qi)人充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)打破(po)地理限制,未來值得關注。除了(le)研(yan)發高壓(ya)快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)(chong)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)縮短充(chong)(chong)(chong) 電(dian)(dian)(dian)時間之外,部分廠商(shang)已經開始布局包括無(wu)線(xian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)、智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機器(qi)人等在內(nei)(nei)(nei)的(de)(de)新興智(zhi) 能(neng)(neng)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)(ji)術(shu),引領(ling)新能(neng)(neng)源汽車充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)方式變(bian)革。電(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽車無(wu)線(xian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)通(tong)過埋(mai)于地面或(huo)道路 兩側下的(de)(de)供電(dian)(dian)(dian)導軌(gui)以(yi)高頻交變(bian)磁場(chang)的(de)(de)形式將電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)傳(chuan)輸給運行在地面上一(yi)定范圍內(nei)(nei)(nei)的(de)(de)車輛接收端電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)拾取(qu)機構,進而實(shi)現車載(zai)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)設備供電(dian)(dian)(dian)。2022 年(nian)沃(wo)爾沃(wo)參與“哥德堡綠色城(cheng)區” 戰略計劃,目前無(wu)線(xian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)已經進入測試階段(duan),預計未來 3 年(nian)內(nei)(nei)(nei)可提供服務。智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian) 機器(qi)人的(de)(de)優勢在于簡化施工工藝,釋放空間活力,便于統(tong)一(yi)管理,并(bing)且(qie)兼具成本優勢。
休閑娛(yu)樂(le)(le)設施(shi)入局,全(quan)方位改(gai)善充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)體驗(yan)。除了致(zhi)力(li)于縮短充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)時(shi)間(jian)、克(ke)服(fu)(fu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)地理限制 之外(wai),改(gai)善充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)過(guo)程中的(de)(de)車主(zhu)體驗(yan)也是各充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁運營商(shang)的(de)(de)努力(li)方向(xiang)。圍(wei)(wei)繞充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)覆蓋(gai)范(fan)圍(wei)(wei) 建(jian)立娛(yu)樂(le)(le)和零售消費配(pei)(pei)套(tao)設施(shi),通(tong)過(guo)提供便利店(dian)服(fu)(fu)務、小型娛(yu)樂(le)(le)設施(shi)、Wi-Fi 等配(pei)(pei)套(tao)服(fu)(fu)務, 可(ke)以在改(gai)善車主(zhu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)體驗(yan)的(de)(de)同(tong)時(shi)提高充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁利用率。例如,星星充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)重慶充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)設置上下 兩層休息(xi)室,包括(kuo)餐飲區和休息(xi)區;星星充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)西(xi)安充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)還(huan)開展了“星星全(quan)運會”活(huo)動, 并設置獎(jiang)品吸引(yin)車主(zhu)參(can)與。
充電模塊價格下降(jiang),普(pu)及速度有望加快
充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)模塊(kuai)(kuai)在直流(liu)(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)成(cheng)(cheng)本中占比(bi)最高(gao)。直流(liu)(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)速度快、功率高(gao),但由于(yu)技術比(bi) 較復雜(za),所(suo)以相比(bi)交流(liu)(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)價格更(geng)高(gao)。目前直流(liu)(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)主要應(ying)用于(yu)公交車、大巴車、出(chu)租(zu)車等專(zhuan)業化(hua)集中運(yun)維場景。2021 年,直流(liu)(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)成(cheng)(cheng)本中充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)模塊(kuai)(kuai)占比(bi)最高(gao),達到 41%, 因此直流(liu)(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)價格對充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)模塊(kuai)(kuai)成(cheng)(cheng)本波(bo)動表現較為敏(min)感。充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)器(qi)和線的(de)成(cheng)(cheng)本占充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)總成(cheng)(cheng) 本 21%,僅(jin)次于(yu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)模塊(kuai)(kuai)成(cheng)(cheng)本占比(bi)。
充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)(mo)塊價(jia)格下(xia)(xia)行(xing),進一步提升直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)普(pu)(pu)及程度。隨(sui)著中國(guo)(guo)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)行(xing)業(ye)生產技術不斷 完善以及行(xing)業(ye)規模(mo)(mo)(mo)持(chi)續擴大帶來的規模(mo)(mo)(mo)效應,自 2014 年(nian)起中國(guo)(guo)直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)(mo)塊價(jia)格穩 步下(xia)(xia)行(xing),直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)(mo)塊價(jia)格由 2014 年(nian)的 2.1 元/W 下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)到 2021 年(nian)的 0.37 元/W。充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)(mo)塊是直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)樁(zhuang)的重要(yao)組件,隨(sui)著充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)(mo)塊價(jia)格下(xia)(xia)降(jiang),直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)成本同(tong)步降(jiang)低,普(pu)(pu)及程度得(de)到 進一步提升。根據(ju)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)聯盟數據(ju),2021 年(nian)我國(guo)(guo)共有公共直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang) 47 萬(wan)臺(tai),同(tong)比增(zeng)長 52.1%,預(yu)計 2022 年(nian)將(jiang)增(zeng)至 76.8 萬(wan)臺(tai)。
直(zhi)流增加信息傳(chuan)輸,實時監(jian)控保障(zhang)安(an)全
直(zhi)流充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)監(jian)(jian)測(ce)(ce)系(xi)統升(sheng)級,智能充(chong)(chong)(chong)放電(dian)(dian)技(ji)(ji)術滿足遠(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)監(jian)(jian)測(ce)(ce)需求(qiu)。為了(le)保證(zheng)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)安 全運(yun)(yun)行(xing),需要對其運(yun)(yun)行(xing)狀態(tai)等(deng)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)實(shi)(shi)時(shi)(shi)(shi)監(jian)(jian)控(kong)及(ji)(ji)遠(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)調節,實(shi)(shi)現智能化運(yun)(yun)維。同(tong)時(shi)(shi)(shi),用戶也能夠(gou)借(jie)助此功(gong)(gong)能遠(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)查看(kan)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)進(jin)(jin)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)。伴隨 5G 遠(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)通(tong)(tong)信技(ji)(ji)術的(de)(de)(de)(de)迅速發展,借(jie)助充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)信息(xi)傳輸功(gong)(gong)能實(shi)(shi)現遠(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)監(jian)(jian)測(ce)(ce)正(zheng)在變得可(ke)行(xing)。通(tong)(tong)過內置的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)采(cai)集(ji)模塊(kuai)及(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)監(jian)(jian)測(ce)(ce)模塊(kuai),可(ke)以(yi)獲 取充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)輸入的(de)(de)(de)(de)標準電(dian)(dian)量(liang)及(ji)(ji)生成(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)量(liang),再經(jing)由通(tong)(tong)訊模塊(kuai)將信息(xi)遠(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)傳輸給監(jian)(jian)管平(ping)臺(tai),最(zui)終由監(jian)(jian)管平(ping)臺(tai)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)精(jing)準調控(kong),為充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)安全運(yun)(yun)行(xing)保駕護航(hang)。例如(ru),亞馬遜云科(ke)技(ji)(ji)使用 Amazon IoT Core 和(he) MQTT 設計了(le)下一代車輛(liang)通(tong)(tong)信系(xi)統,支持通(tong)(tong) 過遠(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)互聯時(shi)(shi)(shi)刻接收并查看(kan)車輛(liang)狀態(tai),完成(cheng)車輛(liang)狀態(tai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)云端呈現、脫機車輛(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)最(zui)后已知狀態(tai)查詢、實(shi)(shi)時(shi)(shi)(shi)更改(gai)車輛(liang)狀態(tai)、通(tong)(tong)過狀態(tai)更改(gai)觸發命令與控(kong)制等(deng)功(gong)(gong)能。
圖(tu)像、視頻信(xin)息采集技術(shu)興起(qi),周(zhou)邊(bian)信(xin)息監控(kong)保(bao)障車樁安全。分散(san)建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁仍(reng)然存在 數(shu)量龐大管理困難、互聯能(neng)力(li)弱等(deng)問題。尤其對于(yu)在地下停車場、偏遠(yuan)地區等(deng)網絡(luo)信(xin)號較 差的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)地區建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁,其設(she)(she)(she)備(bei)管理、信(xin)息同步(bu)、數(shu)據(ju)傳(chuan)輸(shu)等(deng)方面面臨更大挑戰。同時我 國公共充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁由于(yu)缺乏有(you)效(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)監控(kong),燃油車占(zhan)用(yong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)車位的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現象仍(reng)然普遍。根據(ju) 2021 年中 國充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)聯盟針對中國十(shi)個(ge)城市(shi)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁使(shi)用(yong)情況的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)調研數(shu)據(ju)顯示,十(shi)個(ge)城市(shi)公共充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁損壞(huai) 率高(gao)達(da) 20%,嚴重(zhong)降低了(le)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)使(shi)用(yong)效(xiao)率。充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁遠(yuan)程監控(kong)解決方案(an)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)出現,能(neng)夠有(you)效(xiao)解決上述痛點,保(bao)障車樁安全,提(ti)高(gao)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁利用(yong)效(xiao)率,4G 無(wu)線技術(shu)、無(wu)線數(shu)傳(chuan)模(mo)塊及采集 模(mo)塊等(deng)物聯網設(she)(she)(she)備(bei)需求有(you)望隨之快速(su)增長。
充電國(guo)標或將生(sheng)變,加速快充時代到(dao)來(lai)
直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)國標(biao)或將統一,解決適配性不足問題。2022 年(nian)初工(gong)信(xin)部(bu)發(fa)文稱正式(shi)啟動(dong)對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽(qi)車(che)傳導充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)連接(jie)裝置(zhi)國家(jia)標(biao)準(zhun)的修訂工(gong)作(zuo),進一步規范(fan)大功(gong)率充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。在(zai) 2022 年(nian) 4 月(yue)發(fa)布的 《電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽(qi)車(che)傳導充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)用(yong)連接(jie)裝置(zhi) 第 3 部(bu)分:直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)接(jie)口(kou)(kou)(kou)》征求意見稿中(zhong),新(xin)(xin)(xin)國標(biao)出現(xian)兩處明顯變化,一處變化是(shi)針對額定(ding)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓不超過(guo) 1500V 的直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)接(jie)口(kou)(kou)(kou),對應(ying)的額定(ding)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)(liu)(liu)新(xin)(xin)(xin) 增了(le)(le)(le) 10A、16A、25A、32A 和 50A,而 16A 和 32A 恰好是(shi)目前(qian)(qian)交(jiao)流(liu)(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁的充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)額定(ding)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) 流(liu)(liu)(liu),這(zhe)意味著新(xin)(xin)(xin)國標(biao)中(zhong),直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)接(jie)口(kou)(kou)(kou)的功(gong)率可以兼(jian)容(rong)現(xian)有的交(jiao)流(liu)(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)接(jie)口(kou)(kou)(kou)功(gong)率,對于充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong) 電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁來(lai)說,當直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)(liu)樁的充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)功(gong)率向下兼(jian)容(rong)了(le)(le)(le)交(jiao)流(liu)(liu)(liu)樁,結合(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池容(rong)量逐漸上升的趨勢, 交(jiao)流(liu)(liu)(liu)慢充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)或將被直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)(liu)快充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)完全取代。雖然(ran)目前(qian)(qian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)國標(biao)并未正式(shi)發(fa)布,但車(che)企以及(ji)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁企業深度參與標(biao)準(zhun)制(zhi)定(ding)過(guo)程(cheng),且有部(bu)分 車(che)企提(ti)前(qian)(qian)做出布局,比如蔚來(lai)、小(xiao)鵬(peng)的新(xin)(xin)(xin)車(che)型已經將家(jia)用(yong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁升級為了(le)(le)(le)直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)(liu)接(jie)口(kou)(kou)(kou),整車(che) 僅保留直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)(liu)作(zuo)為唯一充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)口(kou)(kou)(kou)。此外新(xin)(xin)(xin)標(biao)準(zhun)中(zhong)還增加了(le)(le)(le) 300A、400A、500A、600A 和 800A 的大功(gong)率直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)要求,未來(lai)隨著硬件的配套升級,可進一步縮短(duan)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)時(shi)間,提(ti)升電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)效率。
全球需求(qiu)快(kuai)速增長(chang),出(chu)口業務(wu)迎來機(ji)遇
海外新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源車市(shi)場火熱,拉動充電樁市(shi)場需求(qiu)(qiu)高(gao)增(zeng)。目前全球(qiu)主要經濟(ji)體基(ji)本計劃在 2050-2060 年實(shi)現零排(pai)放,政(zheng)策推(tui)動下全球(qiu)車輛(liang)電動化(hua)進程有望加速。根據 Marklines, 2022H1 全球(qiu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源車銷量(liang) 422.4 萬輛(liang),同(tong)(tong)比+66.9%,22H1 美國新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源車銷量(liang) 47.17 萬輛(liang), 同(tong)(tong)比+67.2%;全球(qiu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源車滲透率達到 6.7%,同(tong)(tong)/環比+3.4pct/+1.2pct,繼續(xu)保持穩步(bu)上 升態勢。隨(sui)著(zhu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源汽(qi)車銷量(liang)快速增(zeng)加,將會進一步(bu)拉動對充電基(ji)礎設施的需求(qiu)(qiu)。
海(hai)外充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)升級(ji)需求(qiu)強(qiang)烈(lie)(lie),國(guo)(guo)(guo)內充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)制造商迎來出(chu)口機遇。國(guo)(guo)(guo)外新能源車(che)市(shi)(shi)場的(de)(de)(de)火(huo)熱拉 動了充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)基礎設(she)施建設(she)及升級(ji)的(de)(de)(de)需求(qiu)。根據(ju) AFDC,截至 22 年 10 月 13 日,美國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)公(gong)共(gong)(gong)及 私人充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)中交(jiao)流樁(zhuang)仍(reng)然占據(ju)主導地(di)位(wei),占比高達 86.7%,而直流快充(chong)(chong)樁(zhuang)在美國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)覆蓋率 僅(jin)為(wei) 13.3%,難(nan)以滿足對充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)時(shi)長的(de)(de)(de)需求(qiu),充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)升級(ji)需求(qiu)強(qiang)烈(lie)(lie)。根據(ju)歐洲汽車(che)制造商協(xie) 會(ACEA)的(de)(de)(de)測算,到 2030 年歐盟(meng)需要(yao)新增(zeng)約(yue) 680 萬(wan)個公(gong)共(gong)(gong)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(即(ji)每周需安(an)裝 1.4 萬(wan)個充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang))才(cai)能完成《歐洲綠色協(xie)議》內的(de)(de)(de)計劃,而目前歐盟(meng)每周安(an)裝的(de)(de)(de)公(gong)共(gong)(gong)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)不到 2000 個,海(hai)外充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)市(shi)(shi)場的(de)(de)(de)缺口為(wei)中國(guo)(guo)(guo)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)企(qi)業(ye)出(chu)海(hai)提(ti)供了重要(yao)機遇。伴隨(sui)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內傳統 車(che)企(qi)及造車(che)新勢力(li)紛(fen)紛(fen)加大對歐美市(shi)(shi)場的(de)(de)(de)攻(gong)勢,國(guo)(guo)(guo)內充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)企(qi)業(ye)有望乘著政(zheng)策支持及車(che)企(qi)出(chu)海(hai)的(de)(de)(de)東(dong)風實現海(hai)外快速(su)布(bu)局。
充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)出(chu)海機(ji)會與(yu)(yu)挑(tiao)戰并(bing)存(cun),技(ji)術(shu)實(shi)力與(yu)(yu)配套服務是關鍵。目前世界范圍內主要(yao)有四種充(chong)(chong) 電(dian)樁(zhuang)標準,分別為(wei)國(guo)(guo)標、歐(ou)標、美標及(ji)日標,我國(guo)(guo)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)出(chu)口(kou)企業主要(yao)面臨(lin)的(de)是歐(ou)標和(he)美 標。與(yu)(yu)國(guo)(guo)標相比,出(chu)口(kou)產品在安(an)(an)規及(ji)電(dian)磁兼(jian)容等(deng)方面要(yao)求更(geng)加嚴(yan)格,汽車測(ce)試標準和(he)法規 相對于中國(guo)(guo)市場而言更(geng)為(wei)苛刻,并(bing)且需要(yao)取得(de) CE 和(he) UL 等(deng)國(guo)(guo)際(ji)認(ren)(ren)(ren)證(zheng)機(ji)構(gou)的(de)認(ren)(ren)(ren)證(zheng)。除此之(zhi)外,中國(guo)(guo)樁(zhuang)企要(yao)想獲得(de)海外市場認(ren)(ren)(ren)可,還需妥(tuo)善解(jie)決充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)安(an)(an)裝、零部件維護等(deng)售后(hou)服務工作, 因此我們認(ren)(ren)(ren)為(wei)能夠獲取國(guo)(guo)際(ji)認(ren)(ren)(ren)證(zheng)的(de)成熟技(ji)術(shu)積累以及(ji)完善的(de)服務配套是搶占海外充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)市 場的(de)核心關鍵。
行業規模:千億市場高速增長
新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)車滲透率(lv)(lv)提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng),充電(dian)樁需求(qiu)旺盛。我們(men)認為(wei)技術進步和成本下(xia)降是行業(ye)的整體趨(qu)勢, 續航里程增(zeng)加(jia)及(ji)充電(dian)時間縮短提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)了電(dian)動車對燃油車的可替代性,或將(jiang)進一步激發下(xia)游需求(qiu)。我們(men)預計,22-25 年(nian)(nian)新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)乘用(yong)(yong)車銷量(liang)增(zeng)速(su)將(jiang)繼(ji)續提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng),22/25 年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)速(su)約為(wei) 2%/ 5%;25 年(nian)(nian)商用(yong)(yong)車中客車/貨車的滲透率(lv)(lv)約為(wei) 20%/6.5%;對應(ying) 22/25 年(nian)(nian)全國(guo)新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)車銷量(liang)為(wei) 639.2/1391.8 萬輛(liang)(liang),CAGR 達(da)(da) 21.5%,22-25 年(nian)(nian)新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)車總銷量(liang)合計有望(wang)達(da)(da) 4080.2 萬輛(liang)(liang)。
市場(chang)空間:22-25 年充電樁市場(chang)規模有望達到 2942 億元(yuan)
充(chong)電樁(zhuang)市場(chang)規模主要(yao)受車樁(zhuang)比(bi)(bi)、私人充(chong)電樁(zhuang)/公(gong)共(gong)充(chong)電樁(zhuang)比(bi)(bi)例(li)、公(gong)共(gong)充(chong)電樁(zhuang)中交/直(zhi)流占(zhan)比(bi)(bi), 和各類充(chong)電樁(zhuang)價格影響(xiang),我們結合 2021 年(nian)現有(you)(you)充(chong)電樁(zhuang)規模和行業發展(zhan)趨勢,預(yu)計(ji) 22-25 年(nian) 期間充(chong)電樁(zhuang)市場(chang)規模有(you)(you)望達到 2942 億(yi)元,各類假設如下(xia):
車(che)(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi):從(cong)已(yi)有車(che)(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi)規劃(hua)上看,15 年(nian)發布的《關于(yu)(yu)加快電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽車(che)(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)基礎設施建設的指(zhi) 導(dao)意見》,規劃(hua)到(dao)(dao) 2020 年(nian)全國車(che)(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi)近(jin) 1:1;根(gen)據(ju)(ju)中(zhong)(zhong)國充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)聯盟(meng)數(shu)據(ju)(ju)測(ce)算得出,至 20/21 年(nian)底我(wo)(wo)(wo)(wo)國存量(liang)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)的車(che)(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi)為(wei)(wei) 2.9/3.0,仍顯(xian)著(zhu)低于(yu)(yu) 15 年(nian)規劃(hua)的數(shu)據(ju)(ju)。據(ju)(ju)我(wo)(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)測(ce)算 2021 年(nian)公(gong)共(gong)領域車(che)(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi) 6.84,仍處于(yu)(yu)較高(gao)水平,考(kao)(kao)慮到(dao)(dao)下(xia)游(you)新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)車(che)(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)時(shi)間集中(zhong)(zhong),等待時(shi)間影響到(dao)(dao)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)體(ti)驗,我(wo)(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)預(yu)(yu)計公(gong)共(gong)領域車(che)(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi)仍將處于(yu)(yu)下(xia)降區間,預(yu)(yu)計 22-25 年(nian)平均車(che)(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi) 為(wei)(wei) 3:1。我(wo)(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)預(yu)(yu)計 22-25 年(nian)新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)車(che)(che)總銷量(liang)為(wei)(wei) 4080.2 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)輛,對應充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)需求(qiu)為(wei)(wei) 1360.1 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)個。私(si)人(ren)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)/公(gong)共(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi)例:公(gong)共(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)使(shi)用效率(lv)較高(gao),隨設備(bei)使(shi)用率(lv)提(ti)高(gao),我(wo)(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)認為(wei)(wei)公(gong)共(gong)領域充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)或(huo)穩(wen)(wen)步提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)。2021 年(nian)私(si)人(ren)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang) 147 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)個,占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)整體(ti)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)數(shu)量(liang)的 56%, 我(wo)(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)預(yu)(yu)計 22-25 年(nian)私(si)人(ren)/公(gong)共(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei) 55%和 45%。公(gong)共(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)中(zhong)(zhong)交(jiao)直(zhi)流占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi):我(wo)(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)認為(wei)(wei)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)便利性是設置公(gong)共(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)的重要考(kao)(kao)量(liang),直(zhi)流充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) 樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)節約(yue)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)時(shi)間效果明顯(xian)。從(cong)運營商角度看,高(gao)功(gong)率(lv)的直(zhi)流電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)能(neng)(neng)夠提(ti)高(gao)單位時(shi)間的充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) 量(liang),增加充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)收入(ru)。2021 年(nian)存量(liang)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)中(zhong)(zhong),直(zhi)流占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)為(wei)(wei) 41 %,我(wo)(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)預(yu)(yu)計隨直(zhi)流充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)加 速普及,22-25 年(nian)公(gong)共(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)中(zhong)(zhong)直(zhi)流占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)有望達(da)到(dao)(dao) 60%。充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)價(jia)(jia)格(ge):由于(yu)(yu) 2021 年(nian)直(zhi)流充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模塊價(jia)(jia)格(ge)約(yue)為(wei)(wei) 0.37 元/W,我(wo)(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)測(ce)算,50kW 直(zhi)流充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) 樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)總價(jia)(jia)約(yue)為(wei)(wei) 3.7 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)元,450kW 直(zhi)流充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)約(yue)為(wei)(wei) 33.3 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)元。考(kao)(kao)慮功(gong)率(lv)提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)和模塊成本下(xia) 降,單樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)或(huo)將維(wei)持穩(wen)(wen)定,我(wo)(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)預(yu)(yu)計 22-25 年(nian)交(jiao)流和直(zhi)流充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)平均價(jia)(jia)格(ge)分(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei) 0.6 萬(wan)(wan)(wan) 元和 7 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)元。
運營(ying)端:利(li)用率仍(reng)需追逐,新模(mo)式創造藍海
運營模式(shi)(shi)(shi)逐(zhu)步由(you)不同主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)各(ge)自主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)導走向多(duo)(duo)方合(he)(he)作(zuo)創新(xin)。從運營主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)看,起初充(chong)(chong)電樁運營主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu) 要(yao)是(shi)以(yi)政(zheng)府(fu)、企(qi)業(ye)(ye)、用(yong)戶(hu)各(ge)自主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)導的(de)模式(shi)(shi)(shi)。混(hun)合(he)(he)模式(shi)(shi)(shi)是(shi)指(zhi)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)導的(de)同時由(you)政(zheng)府(fu)提(ti)供扶持(chi);眾(zhong)籌(chou)模式(shi)(shi)(shi)是(shi)指(zhi)借(jie)助互(hu)聯網思維(wei),整合(he)(he)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)、社(she)會、政(zheng)府(fu)多(duo)(duo)方力量共同參與。由(you)政(zheng)府(fu)參與運 營的(de)項(xiang)目(mu)往往較(jiao)為規范和有序(xu),但(dan)也(ye)存在著(zhu)增加財(cai)政(zheng)壓力和市場效(xiao)率受限、抑(yi)制行(xing)業(ye)(ye)發展 活力的(de)劣勢。單(dan)純由(you)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)導的(de)模式(shi)(shi)(shi)易導致無序(xu)建設(she)等問題,而憑借(jie)用(yong)戶(hu)一己之力承擔建 設(she)成本及后續運維(wei)費用(yong)的(de)壓力也(ye)較(jiao)大。混(hun)合(he)(he)模式(shi)(shi)(shi)和眾(zhong)籌(chou)模式(shi)(shi)(shi)作(zuo)為多(duo)(duo)個主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)間的(de)結合(he)(he),能改 善以(yi)上問題,盡管協調(diao)的(de)成本要(yao)高于單(dan)一主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti),但(dan)在經濟(ji)性上更有保障。當前具有代表性 的(de)混(hun)合(he)(he)模式(shi)(shi)(shi)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)為特(te)銳德,主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)與目(mu)標(biao)地方政(zheng)府(fu)簽訂合(he)(he)作(zuo)協議(yi),獲(huo)得特(te)殊授權,同時加 大政(zheng)府(fu)對特(te)銳德汽車群充(chong)(chong)電業(ye)(ye)務的(de)社(she)會資本投入,實現合(he)(he)作(zuo)共贏;眾(zhong)籌(chou)模式(shi)(shi)(shi)下的(de)代表性運營商是(shi)星(xing)星(xing)充(chong)(chong)電,推(tui)出了“眾(zhong)籌(chou)建樁”“私樁共享(xiang)”新(xin)模式(shi)(shi)(shi)。
充(chong)電樁(zhuang)運(yun)營的(de)(de)收入來(lai)源主(zhu)要為(wei)(wei)兩大(da)部分(fen)(fen),包(bao)含原(yuan)有(you)(you)模式下(xia)的(de)(de)充(chong)電服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)費,以及新(xin)(xin)興(xing)的(de)(de)增(zeng)值(zhi) 服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)費。增(zeng)值(zhi)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)費是(shi)(shi)(shi)未來(lai)充(chong)電樁(zhuang)運(yun)營市(shi)場中的(de)(de)藍海。從客戶端來(lai)看,充(chong)電樁(zhuang)運(yun)營增(zeng)值(zhi)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)可以分(fen)(fen)為(wei)(wei) To B(面向集團(tuan)、機(ji)構)、To C(面向用(yong)戶)。其中,運(yun)營商主(zhu)要通過 SaaS 平臺 服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu) B 端客戶,并(bing)為(wei)(wei)其提(ti)(ti)供(gong)一體化(hua)智能(neng)運(yun)維解決(jue)方案,如設(she)備的(de)(de)監(jian)控(kong)、結算業務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)和車(che)輛信 息管理的(de)(de)大(da)數據(ju)分(fen)(fen)析服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)等。To C 主(zhu)要是(shi)(shi)(shi)面向單個(ge)車(che)主(zhu),提(ti)(ti)供(gong) App 的(de)(de)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu),提(ti)(ti)供(gong)找樁(zhuang)、移 動支付等服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)。原(yuan)有(you)(you)模式下(xia),利用(yong)率是(shi)(shi)(shi)盈(ying)利源泉(quan),布局點是(shi)(shi)(shi)勝負(fu)手(shou);潛(qian)在模式下(xia),數據(ju)服(fu)(fu) 務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)加(jia)速變(bian)現,有(you)(you)序充(chong)電 V2G 增(zeng)加(jia)收益(yi),為(wei)(wei)盈(ying)利帶來(lai)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)長極(ji)。
原(yuan)有模(mo)式:利用率是盈利源泉,布局(ju)點是勝(sheng)負手
收入端:一般而言(yan),充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)盈(ying)利(li)(li)(li)來源主要由三(san)部(bu)分構成(cheng),包含電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)費(fei)差價(jia)(jia)、服(fu)(fu)(fu)務(wu)費(fei)以及(ji)其他 增值(zhi)服(fu)(fu)(fu)務(wu)費(fei)用(yong)(yong)。由于車主對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)費(fei)差異較為(wei)敏感(gan),充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)運營商直(zhi)接(jie)將電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)費(fei)抬(tai)高的(de)難度(du)(du)較大。因(yin)此,在傳(chuan)統單一的(de)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業務(wu)的(de)運營模式下,服(fu)(fu)(fu)務(wu)費(fei)為(wei)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)盈(ying)利(li)(li)(li)的(de)主要來源。盡管(guan)當前(qian) 官方對服(fu)(fu)(fu)務(wu)費(fei)的(de)限制逐漸放開(kai),但客戶對充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)高度(du)(du)敏感(gan)、充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)市場競爭激(ji)烈可(ke)能(neng)再 度(du)(du)拉低度(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)服(fu)(fu)(fu)務(wu)費(fei)用(yong)(yong)。因(yin)此,當前(qian)提升盈(ying)利(li)(li)(li)水平的(de)核心仍然在于提升利(li)(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)率(lv)。
利用率(lv):整體利用率(lv)不足 10%,地區間差距較大
利(li)用(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)可(ke)(ke)以通過平(ping)(ping)(ping)均樁(zhuang)(zhuang)數利(li)用(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)、單樁(zhuang)(zhuang)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均時(shi)間利(li)用(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)和平(ping)(ping)(ping)均周(zhou)轉(zhuan)率(lv)(lv)(lv)三項指標來評估(gu)。平(ping)(ping)(ping) 均樁(zhuang)(zhuang)數利(li)用(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)指充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站中提(ti)供(gong)服務的(de)(de)(de)(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)和站內充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)總量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)值;單樁(zhuang)(zhuang)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均時(shi)間利(li)用(yong)(yong) 率(lv)(lv)(lv)衡量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)是一個充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)向車(che)(che)輛供(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)時(shi)間和其一天可(ke)(ke)供(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)時(shi)間上限的(de)(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)值;充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站的(de)(de)(de)(de)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均 周(zhou)轉(zhuan)率(lv)(lv)(lv)為服務車(che)(che)輛數量(liang)與站內充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)值。由(you)于(yu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)時(shi)長和功(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)決定了充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang), 因此(ci),我們一般以平(ping)(ping)(ping)均時(shi)間利(li)用(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)來衡量(liang)單個充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)以及(ji)整個充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站的(de)(de)(de)(de)利(li)用(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)情況。
據中規院(yuan)統計,2021 年全國 24 個主要(yao)城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)公用(yong)(yong)(yong)充電(dian)樁的(de)(de)平(ping)均密度約為(wei) 17.3 臺/平(ping)方公里(li)。從整體利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)來(lai)看(kan),盡管 2021 年國內 24 座城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)公用(yong)(yong)(yong)樁的(de)(de)平(ping)均樁數利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)、平(ping)均時間(jian)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong) 率(lv)(lv)、平(ping)均周轉率(lv)(lv)分別提(ti)升 16.9、5.2 和 1.6 個百分點,但(dan)大(da)部分城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)公用(yong)(yong)(yong)樁的(de)(de)平(ping)均樁利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv) 不(bu)到 50%,多(duo)數城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)公用(yong)(yong)(yong)樁的(de)(de)平(ping)均時間(jian)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)不(bu)足 10%,充電(dian)樁利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)仍處于較(jiao)低(di)水平(ping), 長尾效應顯著。從增(zeng)長的(de)(de)幅度來(lai)看(kan),廈門、廣州、福州、長沙、濟(ji)南等城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)的(de)(de)公用(yong)(yong)(yong)樁效能 提(ti)升幅度較(jiao)大(da),而海口(kou)、石家莊、南昌、深圳等城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)的(de)(de)公用(yong)(yong)(yong)樁效能提(ti)升幅度較(jiao)小,整體利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)提(ti)升仍呈(cheng)現出地區間(jian)不(bu)平(ping)衡狀態。
成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)端:充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)施的(de)(de)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)由(you)兩部分構成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)——建設(she)(she)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)和(he)運(yun)營成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)。據 2021 年中商產業研(yan)究院(yuan)統(tong)計數據顯示,從(cong)建設(she)(she)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)來(lai)看,充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)模塊和(he)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)機分別為(wei)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁和(he)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)的(de)(de)核心(xin),占充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)施總(zong)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)的(de)(de) 45%-55%。其(qi)中,充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)模塊/充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)機占充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)系(xi)統(tong)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)近 50%。據中商產 業研(yan)究院(yuan)數據,一(yi)個普通樁的(de)(de)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)均價在 0.5-2 萬(wan)(wan)元(yuan)人民幣,一(yi)個快充(chong)(chong)(chong)樁成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)普遍(bian)在 10-15 萬(wan)(wan)人民幣;一(yi)座充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)的(de)(de)投資成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)約(yue)為(wei) 250 萬(wan)(wan)元(yuan),其(qi)中,配(pei)電(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)施成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)在 160 萬(wan)(wan)元(yuan)左(zuo)右(you)。運(yun)營成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)主要涉(she)及到場(chang)站(zhan)管理員的(de)(de)工資,日常(chang)的(de)(de)維(wei)修和(he)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁的(de)(de)保(bao)險(xian)費等。
充電樁盈利分析
我們假設(she)一個直流充(chong)電樁的充(chong)電功率(lv)為(wei) 50kW,假設(she)單(dan) W 價格(ge)為(wei) 0.65 元,其充(chong)電樁建設(she)初始投(tou)資額為(wei) 7.25 萬元(包(bao)含(han)充(chong)電設(she)備、土建施工(gong)和配電側設(she)備投(tou)資),其中 70%為(wei)銀行貸款,貸款利率(lv)為(wei) 7%。
充(chong)電樁(zhuang)盈(ying)利的敏感性分析
當(dang)直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)充電(dian)樁(zhuang)的利(li)(li)(li)用(yong)率(lv)介于 5-17%之(zhi)間,度電(dian)服務費介于 0.5-1.0 元(yuan)時(shi),單個(ge)直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)樁(zhuang)凈(jing)利(li)(li)(li)率(lv) 處在(zai) 2-57%的范(fan)圍內。當(dang)度電(dian)服務費為 0.5 元(yuan)時(shi),直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)樁(zhuang)利(li)(li)(li)用(yong)率(lv)在(zai)接近 5%時(shi)能夠達到(dao)盈虧(kui) 平衡點(dian);當(dang)度電(dian)服務費為 0.6 元(yuan)時(shi),直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)樁(zhuang)利(li)(li)(li)用(yong)率(lv)在(zai) 4%左(zuo)右能夠達到(dao)盈虧(kui)平衡點(dian)。隨著(zhu)利(li)(li)(li) 用(yong)率(lv)提升,凈(jing)利(li)(li)(li)率(lv)對其敏感性逐漸降低。在(zai)其他條件相(xiang)同的情(qing)況下,充電(dian)功率(lv)提升,凈(jing)利(li)(li)(li)率(lv)亦(yi)隨之(zhi)提高。
充電站盈利分析
我們假(jia)設(she)一座具備 30 個 50kW 直流(liu)充電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)和 10 個 7kW 交流(liu)充電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)充電站,其直流(liu)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de) 單 W 充電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)設(she)備成本為(wei) 0.65 元(yuan)/W,單樁(zhuang)(zhuang)土建支(zhi)出為(wei) 1.5 萬元(yuan),單樁(zhuang)(zhuang)配電側設(she)備支(zhi)出為(wei) 2.5 萬元(yuan);交流(liu)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)單樁(zhuang)(zhuang)成本為(wei) 6000 元(yuan)。其他基本假(jia)設(she)情況如下:
直(zhi)流樁(zhuang)占(zhan)比、直(zhi)流單瓦(wa)充電模塊(kuai)價(jia)格是影響(xiang)充電站(zhan)初始投資的(de)兩(liang)個重(zhong)要因素(su),兩(liang)者(zhe)同(tong)投資 規(gui)模呈正相關(guan)關(guan)系。經(jing)我們測算,當直(zhi)流樁(zhuang)占(zhan)比為 40-80%,單 W 直(zhi)流充電模塊(kuai)價(jia)格在 0.4-0.9 元(yuan)的(de)范(fan)圍內時,投資額約(yue)為 102-278 萬元(yuan)。
假(jia)(jia)設(she)該充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站中(zhong)的直流(liu)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁的充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)功(gong)率為(wei)(wei) 50kW,交(jiao)(jiao)流(liu)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁為(wei)(wei) 7kW,直流(liu)單(dan) W 充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁 設(she)備(bei)價格(ge)為(wei)(wei) 0.65元,交(jiao)(jiao)流(liu)樁的單(dan)樁成本為(wei)(wei) 6000元,則充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站建設(she)的初始投(tou)資規模約(yue)為(wei)(wei) 223.5 萬元(包含充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)、土建施工(gong)和配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)側設(she)備(bei)投(tou)資),其中(zhong) 70%為(wei)(wei)銀(yin)行貸款,貸款利率為(wei)(wei) 7%。假(jia)(jia)設(she)度電(dian)(dian)(dian)服務費為(wei)(wei) 0.5 元/kWh,利用率為(wei)(wei) 10%時(shi),其凈利率約(yue)為(wei)(wei) 19.2%,靜態(tai)投(tou)資 回收期為(wei)(wei) 7.19 年。經(jing)測算(suan)得出,該充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站的盈虧(kui)平衡點處利用率約(yue)為(wei)(wei) 7.45%。
改(gai)進模(mo)式(shi):光儲(chu)充(chong)一體化(hua),降成本賺(zhuan)價差
光(guang)儲(chu)充(chong)(chong)一體(ti)化解決方案本(ben)質是由光(guang)伏、儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和(he)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁三個子系統(tong)(tong)構成一個微電(dian)(dian)(dian)網。該系統(tong)(tong) 通過集成光(guang)伏發電(dian)(dian)(dian)、大(da)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池和(he)智能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁等多(duo)項技(ji)術,既可(ke)以為電(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽車提(ti)供綠 色能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源,又可(ke)以實現電(dian)(dian)(dian)力削峰填谷的(de)輔助功能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)。三者耦合的(de)工作(zuo)機制是通過光(guang)伏子系統(tong)(tong)實 現由太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)到電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)轉化,產出(chu)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)可(ke)以儲(chu)存在(zai)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)系統(tong)(tong)中,或直接輸送至(zhi)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian) 動車充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)或其他用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)端。系統(tong)(tong)中的(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)管理(li)系統(tong)(tong)(EMS)對(dui)系統(tong)(tong)內各個單元起到監控調度(du)作(zuo) 用(yong)(yong),旨(zhi)在(zai)實現能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)配置的(de)最優(you)化。其主要的(de)功能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)有設備監控、能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)統(tong)(tong)計分析、能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)管理(li)、儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)調度(du)、事件告警(jing)、報表管理(li)等。
峰(feng)谷(gu)價(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)下(xia),賺(zhuan)取(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)額成為可能(neng),價(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)擴(kuo)大(da)提振盈利。光(guang)(guang)儲充(chong)一體(ti)化可以將(jiang)光(guang)(guang)儲套利 系統和充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)進行結合,峰(feng)谷(gu)價(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)的擴(kuo)大(da),也(ye)有(you)(you)利于(yu)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)運營(ying)商獲(huo)取(qu)套利收益。22 年 9 月(yue)(yue),多省(sheng)已取(qu)消尖(jian)峰(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia),但(dan)大(da)部分省(sheng)份的峰(feng)谷(gu)價(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)較(jiao) 8 月(yue)(yue)份仍有(you)(you)上浮。根據北極星(xing)儲能(neng) 網(wang)(wang)統計,9 月(yue)(yue)共有(you)(you) 21 省(sheng)份的最大(da)峰(feng)谷(gu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)超過 0.7 元;16 個省(sheng)份的峰(feng)谷(gu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)環比 8 月(yue)(yue) 擴(kuo)大(da)。其(qi)中上海的峰(feng)谷(gu)價(jia)差(cha)(cha)(cha)達 1.397 元/kWh,達到全(quan)國最高水(shui)平(ping)。對(dui)于(yu)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)運營(ying)商而言, 該模(mo)式(shi)克服(fu)了傳統盈利模(mo)式(shi)下(xia)難以獲(huo)取(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)費差(cha)(cha)(cha)價(jia)的弊(bi)端(duan)。日(ri)間(jian)光(guang)(guang)照較(jiao)強時(shi),利用光(guang)(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian) 實(shi)現電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)高峰(feng)段自發(fa)自用,余量上網(wang)(wang),獲(huo)取(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)費收益;低谷(gu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)時(shi)段,調(diao)動電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)容量向儲能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian),實(shi)現自發(fa)自用,峰(feng)谷(gu)套利。
降低配網端增容成本,兩部制電價下節省容量電價。電價按設備容量分為兩類:一是單一 制電價;二是兩部制電價。
單一制電價:是以用戶安裝的電能表每月示出的實際用電量為計費依據。實行單一制電價 的用戶,每月應付電費與其設備容量和用電時間均不發生任何關系,單價保持恒定。
兩部制電價:將電價分成容量(需量)電價和電度電價兩個部分計算。其中,容量(需量) 電價體現了用戶對“電力”的需求,供電企業需要按約定為用戶配置專屬的輸變電容量, 通過容量電價回收相關投資產生的固定成本。另一部分稱為電度電價,體現了用戶對“電 量”的需求,反映電力工業企業成本中的電能成本,即流動費用部分。目前我國對變壓器 容量在 31SkVA 及以上的大工業用電執行兩部制電價,其他用電均執行單一制電價。
實(shi)現(xian)機制:電(dian)網用電(dian)高(gao)峰時,優先使(shi)用儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)系(xi)統(tong)向充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁供電(dian),借此緩解充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁對(dui)區(qu)域電(dian) 網的(de)(de)(de)沖(chong)擊,解決充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)站(zhan)配電(dian)容(rong)量(liang)不足難題。通過(guo)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)系(xi)統(tong),充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)分(fen)發揮存儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)量(liang)和優化(hua)(hua)配置 的(de)(de)(de)功能(neng),谷(gu)期充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)、峰期放電(dian),進一步降低充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)成本,又可(ke)在電(dian)網故(gu)障停電(dian)時采(cai)用離網運 行(xing)模式對(dui)新能(neng)源車緊急充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)。通過(guo)能(neng)量(liang)存儲(chu)(chu)(chu)和優化(hua)(hua)配置實(shi)現(xian)本地(di)能(neng)源生產與(yu)用能(neng)負(fu)荷(he)基(ji)本 平衡,可(ke)根據需要(yao)與(yu)公共電(dian)網靈活互動且(qie)相對(dui)獨立(li)運行(xing),盡(jin)可(ke)能(neng)的(de)(de)(de)使(shi)用新能(neng)源,緩解了(le)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁用電(dian)對(dui)電(dian)網的(de)(de)(de)沖(chong)擊。由于當前的(de)(de)(de)盈(ying)利(li)空(kong)間逐步擴大(da)(da),企(qi)業(ye)紛紛加速布(bu)局(ju)光(guang)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)產業(ye)鏈,如中能(neng)電(dian)氣的(de)(de)(de)子(zi)公司(si)能(neng) 夠為客戶提供光(guang)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)項目前期開發、設計、EPC、運維等(deng)服務,同時公司(si)也(ye)已經在福(fu)清工廠 投建了(le)光(guang)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)一體(ti)化(hua)(hua)示范項,科大(da)(da)國創的(de)(de)(de)光(guang)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)一體(ti)化(hua)(hua)系(xi)統(tong)已在試點運行(xing)中,此外還有易 事特、星云股份、陽光(guang)電(dian)源等(deng)進行(xing)了(le)光(guang)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)沖(chong)一體(ti)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)布(bu)局(ju)。
潛(qian)在模式:數據服(fu)務加(jia)(jia)速變現(xian),有序充電 V2G 增加(jia)(jia)收益
充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁助力車(che)網(wang)互通(tong),加速數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)(ju)變現。早在(zai) 2015 年,國(guo)務(wu)(wu)院就(jiu)已經(jing)(jing)明確“互聯網(wang)+充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)基 礎設施(shi)(shi)”產業(ye)(ye),結合新能源車(che)市(shi)場的發展(zhan)潛力,將(jiang)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設施(shi)(shi)建(jian)設成(cheng)為海量數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)(ju)的入(ru)口。由(you) 于充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁運(yun)營商(shang)、制(zhi)造商(shang)、用戶高度分(fen)散,海量數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)(ju)存在(zai)較大整合價值,行(xing)業(ye)(ye)內開始追求 充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁和大數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)(ju)的耦合聯動。這種聯動一(yi)(yi)方面旨在(zai)借(jie)助大數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)(ju)分(fen)析(xi)車(che)主(zhu)的充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)為,分(fen)析(xi) 充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)區位以實現更(geng)優的充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁建(jian)設分(fen)布;另一(yi)(yi)方面,可以附(fu)帶多項數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)(ju)增值服務(wu)(wu),助力形 成(cheng)大數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)(ju)和充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁融合的創新商(shang)業(ye)(ye)模(mo)式(shi)。當前支付金融、數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)(ju)服務(wu)(wu)、同(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)互聯互通(tong)等業(ye)(ye) 務(wu)(wu)同(tong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)結合的經(jing)(jing)營模(mo)式(shi)層出不窮,為行(xing)業(ye)(ye)發展(zhan)注入(ru)新鮮血(xue)液(ye)。
后市場大(da)數據分(fen)析(xi)開(kai)發增(zeng)值(zhi)服(fu)務(wu)(wu),助力(li)盈利(li)(li)模式變革。后市場是(shi)指汽車(che)(che)銷售完成后提(ti)供的 服(fu)務(wu)(wu),包(bao)括電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)評(ping)估、車(che)(che)輛檢(jian)測(ce)等。借(jie)助后市場大(da)數據分(fen)析(xi)技術,充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)運營(ying)(ying)商未來(lai)可(ke)以(yi) 探索建立“充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)+后市場服(fu)務(wu)(wu)”的運營(ying)(ying)模式,通過為客戶(hu)、車(che)(che)企(qi)等提(ti)供各類增(zeng)值(zhi)服(fu)務(wu)(wu)拓展盈 利(li)(li)渠道,同時可(ke)以(yi)打通中下(xia)游產業鏈,打造差異化的競爭優(you)勢(shi)。例如,特來(lai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)與(yu)天(tian)貓養車(che)(che) 開(kai)展合(he)作,推(tui)動新能源動力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)評(ping)估檢(jian)測(ce)服(fu)務(wu)(wu)落(luo)地,利(li)(li)用(yong)車(che)(che)輛充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)時充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)的回傳數據對車(che)(che)輛電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)進行全(quan)(quan)(quan)面診斷評(ping)估,車(che)(che)主僅需在天(tian)貓養車(che)(che)門店充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian) 20 分(fen)鐘即可(ke)獲得一份電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)檢(jian)測(ce) 報(bao)(bao)告(gao),未來(lai)二者生態進一步融合(he)后車(che)(che)主還可(ke)以(yi)通過手機 APP 查看檢(jian)測(ce)報(bao)(bao)告(gao),進一步落(luo)實“新 能源汽車(che)(che)服(fu)務(wu)(wu)全(quan)(quan)(quan)價值(zhi)鏈”戰略及(ji)“售服(fu)一體化”全(quan)(quan)(quan)布局。
借(jie)助能源互聯(lian)網(wang)平(ping)臺(tai)(tai)運(yun)營(ying)切入 B2B2C 服務,打造利(li)潤新的(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)長極。借(jie)助支付寶(bao)等(deng)第(di)三(san)方通(tong)(tong) 用平(ping)臺(tai)(tai)打造底層入口邏輯,通(tong)(tong)過(guo)(guo)切入B2B2C模式(shi)(shi)實(shi)現(xian)與(yu)其他(ta)運(yun)營(ying)商的(de)(de)(de)數(shu)據(ju)共(gong)享與(yu)業務合作(zuo)(zuo), 通(tong)(tong)過(guo)(guo)共(gong)享服務費(fei)創造新的(de)(de)(de)優質商業模式(shi)(shi)與(yu)利(li)潤增(zeng)長點。例如,特來電(dian)一(yi)(yi)方面與(yu)超過(guo)(guo) 500 家 企(qi)業合作(zuo)(zuo),打造規模大覆蓋廣的(de)(de)(de)互聯(lian)互通(tong)(tong)平(ping)臺(tai)(tai),與(yu)百度(du)地圖合作(zuo)(zuo)為新能源汽車(che)車(che)主出行(xing)提(ti)(ti) 供(gong)更便(bian)捷(jie)的(de)(de)(de)導航(hang)服務;另(ling)一(yi)(yi)方面與(yu)充(chong)電(dian)樁行(xing)業內(nei) 9406 家企(qi)業合作(zuo)(zuo)打造 SaaS 充(chong)電(dian)網(wang),平(ping)臺(tai)(tai) 支持 APP 掃碼、車(che)充(chong)識(shi)別等(deng)多(duo)種充(chong)電(dian)啟動(dong)方式(shi)(shi),通(tong)(tong)過(guo)(guo)大數(shu)據(ju)分析技術,為充(chong)電(dian)設(she)施的(de)(de)(de)運(yun)營(ying) 運(yun)維提(ti)(ti)供(gong)數(shu)據(ju)預測等(deng)服務。星星充(chong)電(dian)獨創包含商家云(yun)、用戶云(yun)、充(chong)電(dian)云(yun)、電(dian)商云(yun)等(deng)十二(er)(er)種 云(yun)平(ping)臺(tai)(tai)在(zai)內(nei)的(de)(de)(de)“星星十二(er)(er)云(yun)”平(ping)臺(tai)(tai),圍繞能源+場(chang)景+生態(tai),從家庭、樓宇(yu)、社區等(deng)多(duo)方面 打造“移動(dong)能源網(wang)”,在(zai)“云(yun)-管-端”(即軟件+服務+硬件)的(de)(de)(de)高度(du)協同(tong)運(yun)作(zuo)(zuo)模式(shi)(shi)下,拓寬盈(ying) 利(li)渠(qu)道。
目前(qian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模式(shi)正在(zai)由無(wu)(wu)序(xu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)向(xiang)有序(xu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)轉(zhuan)變。無(wu)(wu)序(xu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)指(zhi)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)時(shi)間和(he)地(di)點隨機化(hua)(hua),但大(da)(da) 量電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)汽(qi)(qi)車(che)在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網負荷高峰(feng)時(shi)段集(ji)中充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)會給(gei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網造成(cheng)較大(da)(da)壓力,根據國網能(neng)源(yuan)研究(jiu)院于 2021 年(nian)的(de)(de)預測數(shu)據,無(wu)(wu)序(xu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)將導致電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網峰(feng)值負荷在(zai) 2030 年(nian)和(he) 2035 年(nian)增加(jia)(jia) 12%-13.1%。V2G(Vehicle-to-grid)即電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)汽(qi)(qi)車(che)給(gei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網送電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)技術,本(ben)質(zhi)上是一(yi)種雙向(xiang)有序(xu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)策略(lve)。V2G 建立在(zai) V1G(單項有序(xu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)策略(lve))的(de)(de)基(ji)礎之(zhi)上,增加(jia)(jia)了在(zai)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)高峰(feng)反(fan)(fan)向(xiang)放電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)功能(neng)。該功能(neng)可將大(da)(da)基(ji)數(shu)的(de)(de)動(dong)(dong)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)轉(zhuan)變成(cheng)一(yi)個虛擬調(diao)峰(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠,不僅進一(yi)步緩解電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網壓力,也可以通過(guo)(guo)反(fan)(fan)哺電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網增加(jia)(jia)收益(yi)。由此,V2G 有序(xu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)可通過(guo)(guo)三種方式(shi)調(diao)節電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網負荷:1)通過(guo)(guo)設置(zhi)峰(feng)谷電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價激勵電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車(che)用(yong)戶(hu)自發調(diao)整充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)時(shi)間;2)結合(he)配網變壓器的(de)(de)負荷狀(zhuang)態與(yu)開(kai)放容量 以及用(yong)戶(hu)的(de)(de)出行需求對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)汽(qi)(qi)車(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)時(shi)間以及充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)功率進行智能(neng)化(hua)(hua)管理(li);3)智能(neng)控(kong)制與(yu)經 濟杠(gang)桿調(diao)節相結合(he)。
從(cong)(cong)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)角(jiao)(jiao)度(du)看(kan),V2G 模(mo)式(shi)可以實現峰(feng)谷電(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)合理調配,達到“削峰(feng)填(tian)谷”的(de)(de)(de)(de)效果,還(huan)可以調節電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)負荷,提高電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)效率,最大化的(de)(de)(de)(de)滿(man)足社會用(yong)電(dian)(dian)需求,使得整個系統更加協調。從(cong)(cong) 車(che)主(zhu)及(ji)消(xiao)費者的(de)(de)(de)(de)角(jiao)(jiao)度(du)看(kan),在用(yong)電(dian)(dian)低(di)谷時(shi)用(yong)較(jiao)低(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)給汽車(che)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)并儲存電(dian)(dian)量,而(er)在用(yong)電(dian)(dian)高 峰(feng)期(qi)用(yong)較(jiao)高的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)向電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)輸送電(dian)(dian)力,電(dian)(dian)價(jia)差可以給車(che)主(zhu)帶來一定的(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)濟收(shou)益,從(cong)(cong)而(er)進(jin)一步(bu)降(jiang)低(di)電(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽車(che)車(che)主(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本。符合 V2G 模(mo)式(shi)當前還(huan)存在一些弊端(duan),參與“削峰(feng)填(tian)谷”意 味(wei)著動(dong)力電(dian)(dian)池(chi)充(chong)放電(dian)(dian)次數(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)增加,電(dian)(dian)池(chi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)循環(huan)次數(shu)是關注重點(dian)。
競爭格局(ju):馬太效應明顯,“位置好+懂運營”是關鍵
我國充(chong)電樁運營(ying)端的集中(zhong)度整(zheng)體(ti)呈現高(gao)度集中(zhong)的狀態。據中(zhong)國充(chong)電聯盟(meng)的數據顯示,2021 年,我國公共(gong)充(chong)電樁運營(ying)市(shi)場(chang) CR4 已達 74.24%,公用(yong)充(chong)電樁運營(ying)市(shi)場(chang) CR4 達到(dao) 68.26%, 專用(yong)充(chong)電樁運營(ying)市(shi)場(chang) CR4 達 88.86%;直流(liu)充(chong)電樁運營(ying)市(shi)場(chang) CR4 為 79.08%,交流(liu)充(chong)電樁 運營(ying)市(shi)場(chang) CR4 為 71.24%。
充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)行(xing)業呈現(xian)“馬(ma)太(tai)效應(ying)”。由于(yu)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)運營行(xing)業前期(qi)投入較高(gao),但后(hou)期(qi)需要付(fu)出的(de)(de)邊際 成(cheng)本往(wang)往(wang)很低,因此,行(xing)業的(de)(de)競爭(zheng)格局容(rong)易呈現(xian)出“強(qiang)(qiang)者(zhe)愈強(qiang)(qiang),弱者(zhe)愈弱”的(de)(de)“馬(ma)太(tai)效應(ying)”。從充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)(de)市(shi)(shi)占率(lv)來看,22 年(nian) 8 月(yue),星(xing)星(xing)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、特來電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、云(yun)快充(chong)(chong)所提(ti)供的(de)(de)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)運營數量(liang) 占據前三,其市(shi)(shi)占率(lv)分別達到 22%、 18%、12%;國家電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)和(he)南方(fang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)的(de)(de)市(shi)(shi)占率(lv)緊隨其后(hou), 其市(shi)(shi)占率(lv)分別為(wei) 11%、6%。充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站的(de)(de)市(shi)(shi)占率(lv)前三分別為(wei)特來電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、國家電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)和(he)星(xing)星(xing)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。
資金(jin)/技術/環(huan)保(bao)多重壁(bi)壘環(huan)繞(rao),“位置(zhi)好+懂運營”為(wei)(wei)關(guan)鍵。電動汽車(che)充電樁(zhuang)屬(shu)于新(xin)型基礎(chu)設 施(shi),是資金(jin)密集(ji)型產業(ye),替代品威(wei)脅較(jiao)(jiao)小。現有(you)競爭(zheng)者(zhe)數量(liang)不(bu)多,市(shi)場集(ji)中度較(jiao)(jiao)高,同時(shi), 因行業(ye)資金(jin)、技術門檻及(ji)環(huan)保(bao)要求較(jiao)(jiao)高,潛在進入者(zhe)威(wei)脅較(jiao)(jiao)小。上游供(gong)應(ying)商一般為(wei)(wei)原材料(liao) 和零(ling)部(bu)件供(gong)應(ying)企(qi)業(ye),議價能力適中,而下(xia)游消費(fei)(fei)市(shi)場主(zhu)要來自(zi)電動汽車(che)消費(fei)(fei)者(zhe),對價格(ge)變 化相(xiang)對較(jiao)(jiao)為(wei)(wei)敏感。由于后期付出的邊際成本占比相(xiang)對較(jiao)(jiao)低,當前(qian)盈(ying)利(li)模式下(xia)充電樁(zhuang)利(li)用率(lv) 對于項目 IRR 具有(you)最顯著影響,地(di)理位置(zhi)的選擇為(wei)(wei)影響利(li)用率(lv)的核(he)心關(guan)鍵。同時(shi),隨著新(xin) 興盈(ying)利(li)模式逐(zhu)步開拓,充電樁(zhuang)數據(ju)價值(zhi)逐(zhu)步突顯,借(jie)助能源(yuan)互聯網平臺(tai)運營,打造入口優勢,將會為(wei)(wei)企(qi)業(ye)帶來新(xin)的增(zeng)長活(huo)力。
整(zheng)車(che)端(duan):快充提升用(yong)戶體(ti)驗,看好(hao)高電壓快充普及
快充將顯著緩(huan)解電動(dong)車續航焦慮
能(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)密度(du)(du)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)速度(du)(du)趨(qu)緩,提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)補(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)效(xiao)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)重要性(xing)逐漸(jian)體(ti)現(xian)。為(wei)(wei)解決續航焦(jiao)慮(lv)問題這一電(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong) 車(che)普(pu)及(ji)的(de)(de)重要痛點(dian),車(che)企抑(yi)或提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)單車(che)帶電(dian)(dian)量(liang),抑(yi)或提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)補(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)效(xiao)率(lv)(lv)。過往(wang)通過提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)密 度(du)(du)從(cong)而提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)帶電(dian)(dian)量(liang)為(wei)(wei)主要突破(po)方向,隨著材料(liao)體(ti)系升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)級(ji)以(yi)(yi)及(ji)結構(gou)創新,電(dian)(dian)池(chi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)密度(du)(du)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng), 電(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車(che)續航里程(cheng)普(pu)遍達到 400 公里以(yi)(yi)上(shang)。目前能(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)密度(du)(du)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)速度(du)(du)放緩,進一步提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)邊際 難度(du)(du)逐漸(jian)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),若要提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)續航里程(cheng)則(ze)不(bu)得(de)不(bu)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)車(che)身重量(liang),將降(jiang)低(di)電(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車(che)的(de)(de)經濟(ji)性(xing)與環保(bao) 性(xing)。因此提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)補(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)效(xiao)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)重要性(xing)逐漸(jian)體(ti)現(xian)。補(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)基礎設(she)備的(de)(de)普(pu)及(ji)以(yi)(yi)及(ji)補(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)效(xiao)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),將顯(xian)著緩解續航焦(jiao)慮(lv),提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)消費(fei)者體(ti)驗(yan)。
我(wo)(wo)們預計換(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)更(geng)適合(he)于商用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)(che)領域(yu)(yu)。提升補(bu)(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)效率分(fen)為(wei)(wei)快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)與(yu)(yu)(yu)換(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)兩大(da)路線,換(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan) 電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)技(ji)術難(nan)(nan)度較(jiao)(jiao)低,補(bu)(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)速(su)度快(kuai),且(qie)由換(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站統一管(guan)理有(you)利(li)于電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)的(de)(de)全生命周期利(li)用(yong)。蔚來是國內換(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)推廣(guang)者,截止今年 9 月(yue) 25 日(ri),蔚來已(yi)建(jian)成(cheng) 1122 座換(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站,寧(ning)德(de)時(shi)(shi)代也(ye)已(yi)推出(chu) EVOGO 換(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)品牌,首批換(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站于廈門投(tou)入運營。然而換(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)要(yao)求電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi) 系(xi)統的(de)(de)高(gao)度標(biao)準化(hua)需要(yao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)廠(chang)商和(he)車(che)(che)企的(de)(de)共同配(pei)合(he)、協(xie)(xie)調車(che)(che)企與(yu)(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)廠(chang)商各方(fang)的(de)(de)商業利(li)益(yi), 因此標(biao)準化(hua)難(nan)(nan)度較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)。我(wo)(wo)們認為(wei)(wei),換(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)有(you)望在商用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)(che)領域(yu)(yu)普及應(ying)用(yong)。1)商用(yong)車(che)(che)帶 電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)大(da),換(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)相較(jiao)(jiao)于快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)的(de)(de)補(bu)(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)速(su)度優(you)勢(shi)更(geng)加明顯;2)商用(yong)車(che)(che)行駛里(li)程(cheng)高(gao),電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)損耗(hao)較(jiao)(jiao)快(kuai), 換(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)實(shi)現車(che)(che)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)分(fen)離有(you)助于降(jiang)低車(che)(che)輛維護更(geng)換(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)成(cheng)本,能(neng)(neng)(neng)與(yu)(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)回收業形成(cheng)完整(zheng)生態(tai)。我(wo)(wo)們預計快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)或將(jiang)成(cheng)為(wei)(wei)乘(cheng)用(yong)車(che)(che)補(bu)(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)主(zhu)(zhu)流路線。快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)將(jiang)大(da)幅(fu)縮短補(bu)(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)時(shi)(shi)間,搭(da)配(pei)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁或者 充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站配(pei)套(tao)建(jian)設逐步完善,我(wo)(wo)們認為(wei)(wei)對于主(zhu)(zhu)流的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)乘(cheng)用(yong)車(che)(che)市場,快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)模(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)是更(geng)優(you)解決方(fang) 案。參考智能(neng)(neng)(neng)手機發展,2013 年推出(chu)的(de)(de)快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)協(xie)(xie)議 QC1.0 充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)功率僅為(wei)(wei) 10W,最(zui)新的(de)(de) QC5.0 充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)功率已(yi)達到 100W,充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)功率的(de)(de)提升大(da)幅(fu)提升了(le)用(yong)戶提升。以寧(ning)德(de)時(shi)(shi)代最(zui)新推出(chu)的(de)(de)麒麟(lin) 電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)為(wei)(wei)例,可以實(shi)現 10 分(fen)鐘內充(chong)(chong)滿(man) 80%電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang),對應(ying)續航(hang)里(li)程(cheng) 800 公里(li),大(da)幅(fu)縮短了(le)與(yu)(yu)(yu)傳 統燃油(you)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)補(bu)(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)效率差距。
快充車型密集(ji)推出,產業化進程加速
海(hai)內外車(che)(che)企密集推出(chu)快(kuai)充(chong)新車(che)(che)型。大電(dian)流路(lu)線以特斯(si)拉為代表,吉利與零跑等車(che)(che)企也(ye)于(yu)近 兩(liang)年(nian)推出(chu)大電(dian)流快(kuai)充(chong)車(che)(che)型,極(ji)氪(ke) 001 可(ke)實(shi)現 5 分鐘充(chong)電(dian)續航(hang)(hang)(hang) 120 公里(li)。更多(duo)(duo)車(che)(che)企選擇高(gao)(gao)電(dian)壓(ya)路(lu)線,海(hai)外以保(bao)時(shi)捷為代表,其 2019 年(nian)推出(chu)的 Taycan 車(che)(che)型可(ke)實(shi)現充(chong)電(dian) 5 分鐘續航(hang)(hang)(hang) 100 公里(li);國內傳統車(che)(che)企與造車(che)(che)新勢力(li)車(che)(che)型快(kuai)充(chong)性能也(ye)不遜色,廣汽(qi)埃安(an)的 AION V Plus 70 超 級快(kuai)充(chong)版可(ke)實(shi)現充(chong)電(dian) 5 分鐘續航(hang)(hang)(hang) 200 公里(li)。眾多(duo)(duo)車(che)(che)企推出(chu)快(kuai)充(chong)車(che)(che)型一(yi)(yi)方面反映消(xiao)費者(zhe)對(dui)于(yu) 快(kuai)充(chong)性能的重視,另一(yi)(yi)方面也(ye)反映高(gao)(gao)電(dian)壓(ya)快(kuai)充(chong)技術已相對(dui)成熟,我們預(yu)計未來隨著更多(duo)(duo)具 有競爭力(li)的快(kuai)充(chong)車(che)(che)型推出(chu),將進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步加(jia)速(su)快(kuai)充(chong),尤(you)其是高(gao)(gao)電(dian)壓(ya)快(kuai)充(chong)的普及。
中(zhong)國 Chaoji 快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)方(fang)案(an)兼容不(bu)(bu)同快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)方(fang)案(an),技術更為(wei)先(xian)進。此前,中(zhong)、美、歐(ou)、日各(ge)自采用 不(bu)(bu)同快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)標準,但都存在(zai)技術方(fang)案(an)不(bu)(bu)成熟;尺寸過大、機械強度不(bu)(bu)足(zu)、安全缺陷明顯等問(wen)題,一定程度上制約了快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)發(fa)展(zhan)。而中(zhong)國提出(chu)的 Chaoji 快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)方(fang)案(an)兼容現(xian)有各(ge)類標準可(ke)以在(zai)不(bu)(bu)改變現(xian)有車(che)樁產(chan)品的前提下,解(jie)(jie)決(jue)現(xian)有充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)標準問(wen)題,且可(ke)拓展(zhan)性(xing)更強,具體而言,其優點包括,1)ChaoJi 解(jie)(jie)決(jue)了目前存在(zai)于 CCS、CHAdeMO、GB/T 等直流充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)系(xi)統中(zhong)的公差(cha)配合(he),IPXXB、電(dian)(dian)(dian)子鎖可(ke)靠性(xing)等問(wen)題;2)ChaoJi 全面(mian)兼容國際(ji)主流充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)系(xi)統,與 CCS、 CHAdeMO、GB/T2015 系(xi)統兼容;3)ChaoJi 預留未(wei)來(lai)發(fa)展(zhan)空間,支持(chi)未(wei)來(lai)以太網、兆(zhao)瓦 級超大功率,V2X 充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)需求(qiu)。
Chaoji 方案有(you)望助(zhu)推(tui)快(kuai)(kuai)充發(fa)展。按國(guo)家電(dian)網規劃,今年將陸續有(you)支持 Chaoji接口車(che)型上市(shi), 2025 年后國(guo)內將逐步停產老接口車(che)輛,并在 2035 年前(qian)完(wan)成(cheng)全(quan)部車(che)輛接口替(ti)換(huan)。目(mu)前(qian), CHAdeMO3.0 標準(zhun)已宣布采用 ChaoJi 接口。我們認(ren)為未來 Chaoji 快(kuai)(kuai)充方案的推(tui)廣普及有(you) 望加(jia)速快(kuai)(kuai)充發(fa)展,統一(yi)標準(zhun)也(ye)有(you)助(zhu)于國(guo)產電(dian)動(dong)車(che)出(chu)海(hai),促(cu)進國(guo)內電(dian)動(dong)車(che)產業(ye)鏈成(cheng)長,提升全(quan)球市(shi)占率。
電(dian)池端:結(jie)構與材料創(chuang)新助(zhu)推快充產業化
快(kuai)充要求電池結構創新(xin)
結構(gou)層面(mian)(mian),需要通過(guo)(guo)擴大(da)(da)散(san)(san)熱(re)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)、降(jiang)低內阻等方式,緩(huan)解由快充帶來(lai)的(de)(de)發熱(re)量大(da)(da)問題。雖然(ran)通過(guo)(guo)串聯可以提(ti)升(sheng)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓,但電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)芯(xin)本身的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓無法大(da)(da)幅(fu)提(ti)升(sheng),因(yin)此(ci)無論(lun)高電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓抑或(huo) 大(da)(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流路線(xian),快充都會帶來(lai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)芯(xin)層面(mian)(mian)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流提(ti)升(sheng),隨之導致產(chan)熱(re)量的(de)(de)提(ti)升(sheng)。而且(qie)由于電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流 強度以及電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)阻的(de)(de)不均,電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池內部升(sheng)溫不均勻(yun)。因(yin)此(ci)為了保證快充安全性能,電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池廠需要調(diao)整(zheng)散(san)(san)熱(re)系(xi)統(tong),提(ti)升(sheng)散(san)(san)熱(re)能力,優(you)化(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池熱(re)管理系(xi)統(tong)。
負極與電解液為快(kuai)充關鍵
快充速度取決于鋰離子在電解液中、相界面以及在電極材料中的遷移速度。其中,鋰離子 在負極材料中嵌入速度較慢是主要制約因素。嵌鋰速度較慢主要因為:
2)石墨層間距較小,造成鋰離子 的擴散阻力較大。
嵌鋰(li)(li)速(su)度較慢會(hui)導致電極(ji)極(ji)化,降(jiang)至(zhi)析鋰(li)(li)電位(wei)后會(hui)出現析鋰(li)(li)刺穿隔(ge)膜從而(er)引發安全問題。炭(tan)化包(bao)覆(fu)為提(ti)升負(fu)極(ji)材料快充(chong)(chong)性能的主(zhu)要(yao)方(fang)式(shi)。石墨負(fu)極(ji)的層(ceng)狀結(jie)構降(jiang)低嵌鋰(li)(li)速(su)度,目(mu)前 實踐中主(zhu)要(yao)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)包(bao)覆(fu)瀝青等(deng)不(bu)定性碳,有助于(yu)(yu)提(ti)升各向(xiang)同性,為鋰(li)(li)離子嵌入創(chuang)造更多(duo)通(tong)(tong)道。此外,還有蝕刻、摻混碳納米(mi)管、磁場作用定向(xiang)排列(lie)石墨片等(deng)多(duo)種改性方(fang)式(shi)以(yi)提(ti)升快充(chong)(chong)性能,其(qi)本質(zhi)都在于(yu)(yu)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)增加(jia)擴(kuo)(kuo)散通(tong)(tong)道或(huo)者縮短擴(kuo)(kuo)散路徑從而(er)加(jia)速(su)嵌鋰(li)(li)。
FEC 等(deng)電(dian)解液添加劑(ji)(ji)生成(cheng)的(de)(de) SEI 膜阻(zu)(zu)抗較(jiao)小,有助于(yu)(yu)提升鋰(li)離子擴(kuo)散速度(du)。另一限制鋰(li)離子遷移的(de)(de)因(yin)素在(zai)于(yu)(yu)鋰(li)離子在(zai)電(dian)解液與電(dian)極間的(de)(de) SEI 膜遷移速度(du)。通過調整添加劑(ji)(ji)配方(fang),形成(cheng)阻(zu)(zu)抗較(jiao)低的(de)(de) SEI 膜,有助于(yu)(yu)提升快充(chong)性(xing)能。以(yi) FEC 作為添加劑(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)電(dian)解液,與負極反(fan)應生成(cheng)的(de)(de) SEI 膜含有較(jiao)多(duo)的(de)(de)碳酸(suan)鋰(li),鋰(li)離子更容易擴(kuo)散,而天以(yi) VC 為添加劑(ji)(ji)則會生成(cheng)較(jiao)多(duo)的(de)(de)長鏈(lian)物質,阻(zu)(zu)抗較(jiao)高,降(jiang)低鋰(li)離子擴(kuo)散速度(du)。
FEC 等電解(jie)液添加(jia)(jia)劑(ji)顯(xian)著提升快充(chong)(chong)能(neng)力。由于(yu) FEC 添加(jia)(jia)劑(ji)加(jia)(jia)速(su)(su)鋰(li)離子擴(kuo)散(san)速(su)(su)度,減少負(fu)極極化,能(neng)避免(mian)因快充(chong)(chong)導(dao)致(zhi)的析(xi)(xi)鋰(li)問(wen)題,而 VC 添加(jia)(jia)劑(ji)在(zai)快充(chong)(chong)下(xia),負(fu)極電位可能(neng)降(jiang)到析(xi)(xi)鋰(li)電位以下(xia),引(yin)發安全問(wen)題。添加(jia)(jia)了 FEC 的電池在(zai) 3C 充(chong)(chong)電條件(jian)下(xia),容量保持(chi)率也顯(xian)著好于(yu) VC 與 EC。
電池廠相繼推出快充(chong)產品
電(dian)池廠(chang)加速(su)布局(ju)快(kuai)充。以(yi)寧德時代為(wei)代表的電(dian)池廠(chang)商在過去兩(liang)年(nian)陸續推出快(kuai)充新品(pin)。寧德 時代今(jin)年(nian) 6 月發(fa)布麒麟(lin)電(dian)池,10 分鐘可實現快(kuai)充至 80%,首(shou)發(fa)車型(xing)極(ji)氪 009 將于(yu)明年(nian)一(yi)季(ji)度交付;欣旺達于(yu)今(jin)年(nian) 9 月發(fa)布的快(kuai)充動力(li)電(dian)池產品(pin) SFC480,充電(dian) 10 分鐘續航可達 400 公里,相(xiang)關配套車型(xing)將于(yu)今(jin)年(nian)四季(ji)度上市。
結(jie)構設計(ji)層面,寧德(de)時代的麒麟電池重構水冷(leng)系統,擴大將散熱面積(ji)擴大了(le) 4 倍(bei)。欣旺(wang)達 的 SFC480 快(kuai)充電池采用了(le) 3D 液冷(leng)方案,提升散熱性能。材料(liao)端,欣旺(wang)達 SFC480 快(kuai)充電池為例,其(qi)采用了(le)高電壓(ya) 6 系無鈷中鎳三(san)元(yuan)材料(liao),搭配(pei)復(fu)合包覆、元(yuan)素摻(chan)雜等改進,提升快(kuai)充情境下的安(an)全性能;其(qi)負極材料(liao)也采取了(le)改性處(chu)理提升倍(bei)率性能。