重慶皓普(pu)電氣(qi)有限公司
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地(di)址:重(zhong)慶市九(jiu)龍(long)坡區(qu)九(jiu)龍(long)園區(qu)紅獅大道(dao)5號金科500間26-14號
依托新能源汽車高景氣度,充電設備市場空間較大。2018年新能源乘用車銷量同比增速 76%,客車及物流車受補貼退坡影響銷量小幅下滑,預計中長期伴隨新能源公交車滲透率提升及“路權”政策對物流車應用推動,整體銷量 將實現穩定增長。我們認為充電設備規模的上限為充電設施與新能源汽車規模的發展速度相匹配,充電設備規模的下限為充電設施與電動車充電量的發展速度相匹配。預計 2020年充電樁累(lei)計規模在(zai) 140-177億元,2025年累(lei)計規模在(zai) 770-1290億元,2020-2025年新增市場 CAGR在(zai) 25%-50%之(zhi)間。
?設備制造環節短期競爭格局嚴峻,中長期大功率趨勢提升集中度。充電樁設備技術門檻及差異化程度不高,價格競爭成獲取市場份額關鍵。中長期行業集中度有望提升,主要原因在于大功率充電成趨勢。大功率充電一方面滿足用戶快速充電需求,另一方面有助于提升充電站投資回報率。大功率充電模塊的發展趨勢也逐漸清晰。單功率模塊功率密度適度提升有助于降低單瓦成本,因此開發大功率模塊,是設備制造商擴大盈利空間的必然選擇。在同源技術領域有技術沉淀的企業能夠大幅減少研發投入及電路測試成本。預計在此背景下,具備大功率模塊及設備生產能力的企業集中度有望提升,下游對設備制造企業的價格壓力將有所緩解,設備制造環節盈利能力將逐步趨穩。
?運(yun)(yun)(yun)營(ying)環(huan)(huan)節(jie)市(shi)場(chang)集中度較高(gao),提高(gao)利(li)(li)用率成(cheng)(cheng)關鍵。充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)運(yun)(yun)(yun)營(ying)環(huan)(huan)節(jie)的(de)(de)市(shi)場(chang)空間(jian)由(you)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)總充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)時長及服(fu)(fu)務費(fei)水平(ping)決定(ding)。預(yu)計到 2025年(nian)運(yun)(yun)(yun)營(ying)環(huan)(huan)節(jie)市(shi)場(chang)規模(mo)將(jiang)達 1620億元。2016-2018年(nian)運(yun)(yun)(yun)營(ying)環(huan)(huan)節(jie) CR5及 CR10均在(zai) 80%及 90%左右。高(gao)集中度的(de)(de)市(shi)場(chang)格局主(zhu)要得(de)益于充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設施運(yun)(yun)(yun)營(ying)環(huan)(huan)節(jie)較高(gao)的(de)(de)前期(qi)(qi)投(tou)入(ru)及極強(qiang)的(de)(de)規模(mo)效(xiao)應(ying)(ying)。未來(lai)幾年(nian)運(yun)(yun)(yun)營(ying)環(huan)(huan)節(jie)百億級的(de)(de)市(shi)場(chang)規模(mo)仍將(jiang)主(zhu)要被(bei) 10名左右運(yun)(yun)(yun)營(ying)商(shang)瓜分(fen)。盈利(li)(li)能(neng)力方(fang)面,根據典(dian)型充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)模(mo)型,進一步提高(gao)樁利(li)(li)用率并且/ 或者(zhe)提高(gao)服(fu)(fu)務費(fei)是(shi)提升充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)內部收益率的(de)(de)最有效(xiao)途徑。充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)服(fu)(fu)務費(fei)方(fang)面, 我們(men)判斷 2019-2020年(nian)放開服(fu)(fu)務費(fei)管(guan)(guan)制(zhi)地(di)區將(jiang)增多,服(fu)(fu)務費(fei)水平(ping)出現(xian)分(fen)化的(de)(de)可能(neng)性加大。中長期(qi)(qi)伴(ban)隨競爭程度加劇(ju),充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)服(fu)(fu)務費(fei)將(jiang)呈現(xian)下滑態勢。由(you)于短(duan)期(qi)(qi)服(fu)(fu)務費(fei)仍要受政(zheng)策限制(zhi),加速推動行(xing)業盈利(li)(li)拐點到來(lai)的(de)(de)最關鍵因(yin)素(su)在(zai)于提升充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁利(li)(li)用率。運(yun)(yun)(yun)營(ying)商(shang)應(ying)(ying)加強(qiang)運(yun)(yun)(yun)維管(guan)(guan)理(li)及互聯互通(tong)能(neng)力,在(zai)運(yun)(yun)(yun)營(ying)模(mo)式上也應(ying)(ying)進行(xing)創新性探索(suo)。目前較為成(cheng)(cheng)熟的(de)(de)商(shang)業模(mo)式包(bao)括 ChargePoint實行(xing)的(de)(de)“充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) App+增值服(fu)(fu)務+大數據入(ru)口”模(mo)式及“運(yun)(yun)(yun)營(ying)商(shang)+終端用戶+眾(zhong)籌建(jian)樁”模(mo)式
依托新(xin)能源汽(qi)車高景氣度,充(chong)電設備市場空間大
新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)快(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)速發展(zhan)帶動行(xing)業高景氣(qi)度,未來(lai)增(zeng)長確定(ding)性強新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)產業實(shi)現(xian)快(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)速發展(zhan),2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)整(zheng)體(ti)(ti)上(shang)揚趨勢(shi)不變。過去(qu)幾年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),我國(guo)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)行(xing)業呈現(xian)快(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)速發展(zhan)勢(shi)頭,伴隨國(guo)家接(jie)連出臺(tai)的一系列(lie)配(pei)套補(bu)(bu)貼優惠政(zheng)策,我國(guo)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)行(xing)業快(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)速實(shi)現(xian)產業化和規模化的飛(fei)躍式(shi)發展(zhan),2012-2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)CAGR達(da)到(dao)(dao)113%。進入(ru)2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以來(lai),雖(sui)(sui)然受補(bu)(bu)貼退坡影(ying)(ying)響新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)有(you)所波動,尤其是(shi)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)客(ke)車(che)及(ji)(ji)專用車(che)市場不及(ji)(ji)預(yu)期,但(dan)整(zheng)體(ti)(ti)上(shang)揚趨勢(shi)沒有(you)改變。2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)合計銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)達(da)到(dao)(dao)118.8萬(wan)臺(tai),同(tong)比增(zeng)速達(da)到(dao)(dao)56%。其中新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)乘用車(che)實(shi)現(xian)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)101.7萬(wan)臺(tai),同(tong)比增(zeng)速達(da)到(dao)(dao)76%,雖(sui)(sui)然在6、7月份(fen)受補(bu)(bu)貼政(zheng)策切(qie)換(huan)影(ying)(ying)響,銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)出現(xian)短暫下(xia)(xia)滑(hua),但(dan)伴隨市場情緒(xu)逐漸穩定(ding),8月份(fen)后景氣(qi)度又得到(dao)(dao)較(jiao)快(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)回升。新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)客(ke)車(che)及(ji)(ji)專用車(che)受補(bu)(bu)貼政(zheng)策下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)影(ying)(ying)響較(jiao)大,上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均出現(xian)明顯搶(qiang)裝趨勢(shi),下(xia)(xia)半年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)發展(zhan)不及(ji)(ji)預(yu)期,新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)客(ke)車(che)及(ji)(ji)專用車(che)實(shi)現(xian)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)10.4、6.7萬(wan)臺(tai),同(tong)比下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)1%及(ji)(ji)15%。
雖然短期(qi)受補(bu)(bu)貼退坡政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)影響,但(dan)長(chang)期(qi)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)快速(su)增長(chang)確定性(xing)(xing)強。我們(men)(men)持(chi)續看好新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)未來(lai)增長(chang)空(kong)間(jian)。對于(yu)(yu)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)客車(che)(che)(che)(che)而言(yan),預(yu)(yu)計(ji)未來(lai)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)客車(che)(che)(che)(che)主要(yao)增量(liang)空(kong)間(jian)來(lai)自(zi)于(yu)(yu)公交車(che)(che)(che)(che)滲透率的(de)(de)進一步提(ti)高及在經濟性(xing)(xing)不(bu)斷(duan)提(ti)升的(de)(de)情況下公路客車(che)(che)(che)(che)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)的(de)(de)不(bu)斷(duan)提(ti)升。對于(yu)(yu)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)專用車(che)(che)(che)(che)而言(yan),雖然在補(bu)(bu)貼方面退坡力(li)度較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)大,但(dan)國家(jia)相(xiang)應(ying)出(chu)臺“路權”等政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)促(cu)進新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)物流車(che)(che)(che)(che)的(de)(de)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售。另外各(ge)地也推出(chu)物流車(che)(che)(che)(che)相(xiang)關政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)及規(gui)劃,預(yu)(yu)計(ji)其在未來(lai)幾年(nian)仍將(jiang)(jiang)有較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)大增長(chang)空(kong)間(jian)。對于(yu)(yu)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)乘用車(che)(che)(che)(che)而言(yan),伴隨(sui)補(bu)(bu)貼政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)的(de)(de)持(chi)續退坡,新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)乘用車(che)(che)(che)(che)消費屬性(xing)(xing)將(jiang)(jiang)持(chi)續增強,預(yu)(yu)計(ji)整體銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)增速(su)將(jiang)(jiang)進入較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)為平(ping)穩狀態。根據《“十三五(wu)”國家(jia)戰略性(xing)(xing)新(xin)興產(chan)業(ye)發展規(gui)劃》,2020年(nian)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)要(yao)實現產(chan)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)200萬(wan)(wan)輛,累計(ji)產(chan)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)達500萬(wan)(wan)輛。另外根據2017年(nian)5月份的(de)(de)《汽(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)產(chan)業(ye)中(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)發展規(gui)劃》,到(dao)(dao)2025年(nian)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)產(chan)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)水平(ping)將(jiang)(jiang)達到(dao)(dao)700萬(wan)(wan)輛。據此我們(men)(men)估(gu)算2018-2025年(nian)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)乘用車(che)(che)(che)(che)、客車(che)(che)(che)(che)及專用車(che)(che)(che)(che)產(chan)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)CAGR將(jiang)(jiang)分別達到(dao)(dao)31%、7%及18%。
伴隨新能源汽車產銷量規模持續擴大,對充電設備的需要也與日俱增。目前電動汽車的電能補給方式主要分為充電和換電兩種。我國當前以充電為主要發展方向,換電站數量較少。具體來看,充電模式又分為常規充電及快速充電兩種,常規充電對應的充電設備為交流充電樁,是指固定安裝在電動汽車外,與交流電網連接,為電動汽車車載充電機提供220V或380V交流電源的供電裝置。交流充電樁無法為電池直接充電,需連接車載充電機才能完成充電過程,由于車載充電機功率相對較小,因此交流充電樁充電時間較長,但對蓄電池的壽命影響較小,且設備結構簡單,成本較低。
快速充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)對應的(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設備(bei)為(wei)直(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁,直(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁是(shi)指(zhi)固定(ding)安裝(zhuang)(zhuang)在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車(che)外,與交流(liu)(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網直(zhi)接(jie)連接(jie),可為(wei)非車(che)載(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車(che)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池提供直(zhi)流(liu)(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源的(de)供電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)置(zhi)。直(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁采(cai)用(yong)三(san)相(xiang)四線制供電(dian)(dian)(dian),內置(zhi)大(da)功(gong)率(lv)(lv)直(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)模塊,可以輸出高達150-400A的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)(liu),從(cong)而實現快充(chong)(chong)(chong)的(de)功(gong)能。充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)過程中,三(san)相(xiang)交流(liu)(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)經(jing)配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)變(bian)壓(ya)(ya)器降壓(ya)(ya)后,統一經(jing)整流(liu)(liu)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)置(zhi)變(bian)為(wei)直(zhi)流(liu)(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian),再(zai)(zai)經(jing)濾波后通(tong)(tong)過DC/DC功(gong)率(lv)(lv)變(bian)換器,經(jing)高頻功(gong)率(lv)(lv)變(bian)換器變(bian)換輸出需(xu)要的(de)直(zhi)流(liu)(liu),再(zai)(zai)次濾波后為(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車(che)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)池充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)。另外由于直(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁功(gong)率(lv)(lv)通(tong)(tong)常為(wei)50-100kW的(de)大(da)功(gong)率(lv)(lv),需(xu)要配(pei)備(bei)專用(yong)的(de)供電(dian)(dian)(dian)線路(lu)及變(bian)壓(ya)(ya)器等設備(bei),因此安裝(zhuang)(zhuang)成本高于交流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁。
因(yin)(yin)此交(jiao)流(liu)及直流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)在(zai)(zai)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)時(shi)長(chang)、投資(zi)成(cheng)本、技術難度(du)及應用場景方面(mian)均(jun)存在(zai)(zai)較大差(cha)異。充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)時(shi)長(chang)角度(du),交(jiao)流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)一般在(zai)(zai)5-8小時(shi)左右,而(er)(er)直流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)僅需要20-30分(fen)鐘,因(yin)(yin)此交(jiao)流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)的(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)功率僅在(zai)(zai)1-3kW,而(er)(er)直流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)的(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)功率高達50-100kW。另外(wai)直流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)成(cheng)本普遍在(zai)(zai)3-5萬元左右,而(er)(er)交(jiao)流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)由于沒有變壓器、濾波裝置等部件,成(cheng)本較為低廉。
根據目前國(guo)(guo)內充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁行業(ye)發展現狀,充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁產業(ye)鏈可以(yi)(yi)大(da)致(zhi)分(fen)為設(she)(she)備(bei)生產商、充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)運營(ying)商及(ji)整體(ti)解決(jue)方(fang)案商。設(she)(she)備(bei)生產環節還(huan)可以(yi)(yi)具體(ti)分(fen)為上(shang)游(you)的充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)塊、充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)槍、濾波裝置、斷路器(qi)、交流(liu)/直流(liu)接觸器(qi)、直流(liu)熔斷器(qi)等(deng),中(zhong)游(you)的交直流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)備(bei)及(ji)車載充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機,同(tong)時還(huan)包括配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)備(bei)及(ji)相關輔助設(she)(she)備(bei)生產商。下游(you)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)備(bei)運營(ying)商可以(yi)(yi)大(da)致(zhi)分(fen)為電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網、國(guo)(guo)資(zi)背景及(ji)民營(ying)資(zi)本三種類型,同(tong)時部分(fen)整車廠也參與到充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)運營(ying)之中(zhong)。另(ling)外,部分(fen)設(she)(she)備(bei)運營(ying)企業(ye)具備(bei)垂直一體(ti)化能(neng)力,即(ji)集充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)塊生產、充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)及(ji)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)運營(ying)能(neng)力于一身,如特銳德、易事(shi)特及(ji)奧(ao)特迅(xun)等(deng)。
國(guo)(guo)內充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)進(jin)入(ru)(ru)(ru)快速(su)增(zeng)長期,但市場缺(que)口仍(reng)然(ran)較(jiao)大我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)發展大致可以(yi)分成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)兩個(ge)(ge)(ge)階(jie)(jie)段,一是(shi)(shi)2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)以(yi)前(qian)的(de)(de)初步試水(shui)階(jie)(jie)段,二(er)是(shi)(shi)2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)以(yi)后的(de)(de)較(jiao)快成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)長階(jie)(jie)段。2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)以(yi)前(qian)由(you)于(yu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)銷量(liang)尚沒有(you)呈現(xian)(xian)較(jiao)強的(de)(de)規模優(you)勢,因(yin)(yin)此充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)發展主導力量(liang)來自于(yu)政(zheng)府(fu)推(tui)動(dong),參(can)(can)與者均(jun)為(wei)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、南(nan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)等國(guo)(guo)有(you)企(qi)業(ye)(ye),且應(ying)用對象均(jun)為(wei)公共(gong)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)或政(zheng)府(fu)內部用車(che)(che),起到示范(fan)帶頭作用。2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)開始對充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)(de)相關政(zheng)策(ce)陸(lu)續出(chu)(chu)(chu)臺,《電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)科技(ji)發展“十(shi)二(er)五”專項規劃》要求到2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)建(jian)(jian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)2000個(ge)(ge)(ge)充(chong)換電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)、40萬(wan)(wan)(wan)個(ge)(ge)(ge)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang);《節能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)與新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)產業(ye)(ye)發展規劃(2012-2020年(nian)(nian)(nian))》提(ti)出(chu)(chu)(chu)將充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)納入(ru)(ru)(ru)城市綜合(he)交通(tong)體系(xi),且充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)數(shu)量(liang)應(ying)適度(du)超前(qian)于(yu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)推(tui)廣。但這一階(jie)(jie)段由(you)于(yu)國(guo)(guo)家政(zheng)策(ce)扶(fu)植(zhi)的(de)(de)重(zhong)點仍(reng)在(zai)(zai)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)購(gou)置環節,且行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)標準及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)運(yun)營(ying)模式尚在(zai)(zai)摸(mo)索,因(yin)(yin)此除比亞迪等少(shao)數(shu)車(che)(che)企(qi)外,基(ji)本沒有(you)民(min)(min)營(ying)資(zi)本進(jin)入(ru)(ru)(ru)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)領域(yu)。但在(zai)(zai)政(zheng)府(fu)力量(liang)的(de)(de)參(can)(can)與下,該階(jie)(jie)段我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)仍(reng)實現(xian)(xian)較(jiao)快增(zeng)長,2010-2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)公共(gong)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)數(shu)量(liang)從(cong)0.11萬(wan)(wan)(wan)個(ge)(ge)(ge)提(ti)升至2.25萬(wan)(wan)(wan)個(ge)(ge)(ge),CAGR達(da)到173%。2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)以(yi)后,隨著新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)規模化銷售趨勢的(de)(de)逐(zhu)漸形成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng),在(zai)(zai)國(guo)(guo)家扶(fu)植(zhi)政(zheng)策(ce)的(de)(de)引導下,民(min)(min)營(ying)資(zi)本開始進(jin)入(ru)(ru)(ru)該領域(yu)。2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)5月,國(guo)(guo)家電(dian)(dian)(dian)網宣布引入(ru)(ru)(ru)社(she)會資(zi)本參(can)(can)與電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)充(chong)換電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)設(she)(she)(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she),隨后相繼出(chu)(chu)(chu)臺多(duo)項政(zheng)策(ce),從(cong)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)價格、充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)服務費、運(yun)營(ying)補貼等多(duo)維度(du)促進(jin)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)扶(fu)植(zhi)政(zheng)策(ce)落地(di),并于(yu)2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)11月《關于(yu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)獎勵(li)的(de)(de)通(tong)知》中明確(que)提(ti)出(chu)(chu)(chu)對于(yu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)推(tui)廣到一定(ding)數(shu)量(liang)的(de)(de)地(di)區安(an)排相應(ying)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)獎勵(li),首(shou)次將新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)購(gou)置環節與充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)補貼相掛鉤。在(zai)(zai)一系(xi)列政(zheng)策(ce)引導下,特來電(dian)(dian)(dian)、萬(wan)(wan)(wan)幫新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)、普天新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)等民(min)(min)營(ying)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)開始涌(yong)現(xian)(xian)。我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)開始呈現(xian)(xian)出(chu)(chu)(chu)國(guo)(guo)企(qi)、民(min)(min)企(qi)、混合(he)所有(you)制企(qi)業(ye)(ye)共(gong)存的(de)(de)局面。由(you)此充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)進(jin)入(ru)(ru)(ru)較(jiao)快增(zeng)長階(jie)(jie)段,2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)至2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)公共(gong)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)保有(you)量(liang)從(cong)3.1萬(wan)(wan)(wan)個(ge)(ge)(ge)增(zeng)長至21.4萬(wan)(wan)(wan)個(ge)(ge)(ge),CAGR達(da)到91%,同時2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)已經建(jian)(jian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)私人(ren)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)達(da)23.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)個(ge)(ge)(ge)。
當前我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)有(you)量位居全球(qiu)第(di)一,但整(zheng)體建設(she)(she)(she)(she)速度仍(reng)落后于(yu)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)(che)發(fa)(fa)展速度。根(gen)據(ju)中國(guo)(guo)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)聯盟(meng)的(de)(de)相(xiang)關數據(ju)統計,2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)有(you)量合(he)計達到(dao)(dao)80.8萬(wan)(wan)個(ge),其中公共類充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)施32.8萬(wan)(wan)個(ge),相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)11.4萬(wan)(wan)個(ge),私人充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)施48萬(wan)(wan)個(ge),相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)24.8萬(wan)(wan)個(ge)。預(yu)計到(dao)(dao)2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)底,我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)(che)整(zheng)體保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)有(you)量將達到(dao)(dao)270萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang),我(wo)(wo)們預(yu)計到(dao)(dao)2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)底需要直流快(kuai)(kuai)充(chong)(chong)(chong)的(de)(de)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)(che)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)有(you)量將達到(dao)(dao)79.7萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang),慢充(chong)(chong)(chong)的(de)(de)非運(yun)營(ying)(ying)類車(che)(che)(che)輛(liang)(liang)規模在191.6萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)左右。根(gen)據(ju)2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)有(you)量情(qing)況,可(ke)以計算出整(zheng)體車(che)(che)(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi)為3.4:1,新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)運(yun)營(ying)(ying)車(che)(che)(che)與(yu)公共快(kuai)(kuai)充(chong)(chong)(chong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)(de)車(che)(che)(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi)為5.76:1,新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)非運(yun)營(ying)(ying)車(che)(che)(che)與(yu)慢充(chong)(chong)(chong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)(de)車(che)(che)(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi)為2.86:1。相(xiang)較2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)國(guo)(guo)務(wu)院(yuan)印(yin)發(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)《關于(yu)加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)電(dian)動汽(qi)車(che)(che)(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)基礎設(she)(she)(she)(she)施建設(she)(she)(she)(she)的(de)(de)指導意見》中規劃的(de)(de)到(dao)(dao)2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)車(che)(che)(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)(bi)近1:1的(de)(de)目標仍(reng)有(you)較大差距。同時可(ke)以看出在充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)整(zheng)體發(fa)(fa)展速度與(yu)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)(che)行業不匹配的(de)(de)大背(bei)景(jing)下,公共類快(kuai)(kuai)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)站即直流充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)相(xiang)對(dui)于(yu)運(yun)營(ying)(ying)類電(dian)動車(che)(che)(che)的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)展缺口問題更(geng)加(jia)(jia)突出。
2020-2025年(nian)(nian)設(she)備(bei)市(shi)場(chang)規(gui)(gui)模復合增(zeng)速(su)預計(ji)在(zai)(zai)25-50%之間(jian)(jian)對于充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)市(shi)場(chang)規(gui)(gui)模的(de)(de)預測,我(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)認(ren)為(wei)規(gui)(gui)模的(de)(de)上限為(wei)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施與(yu)(yu)(yu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)規(gui)(gui)模的(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)速(su)度相(xiang)匹(pi)配(pei)(pei),即車(che)(che)樁(zhuang)比最終實現(xian)1:1的(de)(de)目標;而(er)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)規(gui)(gui)模的(de)(de)下限為(wei)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施與(yu)(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動車(che)(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)速(su)度相(xiang)匹(pi)配(pei)(pei),即能夠滿(man)足(zu)全部新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)需(xu)求(qiu)。按照以(yi)上估算方(fang)法,預計(ji)2020年(nian)(nian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)市(shi)場(chang)累計(ji)規(gui)(gui)模將(jiang)在(zai)(zai)140-177億元左(zuo)(zuo)右(you),2025年(nian)(nian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)市(shi)場(chang)累計(ji)規(gui)(gui)模將(jiang)在(zai)(zai)770-1290億元左(zuo)(zuo)右(you),2020-2025年(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)市(shi)場(chang)CAGR將(jiang)在(zai)(zai)25%-50%之間(jian)(jian)。如果按照充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施與(yu)(yu)(yu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)行業(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)速(su)度相(xiang)匹(pi)配(pei)(pei)的(de)(de)方(fang)式預測,則到(dao)2020年(nian)(nian)國(guo)內(nei)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)總需(xu)求(qiu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)將(jiang)超(chao)過200萬(wan)個(ge)(ge),2025年(nian)(nian)將(jiang)突破2600萬(wan)個(ge)(ge),2020-2025年(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)市(shi)場(chang)規(gui)(gui)模CAGR達(da)(da)到(dao)50.3%。根據(ju)相(xiang)關政(zheng)策2020年(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)銷量(liang)(liang)(liang)預計(ji)將(jiang)達(da)(da)到(dao)200萬(wan)臺,我(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)估算新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)保有(you)(you)(you)(you)量(liang)(liang)(liang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)望達(da)(da)到(dao)570萬(wan)臺。如果我(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)假設(she)到(dao)2020年(nian)(nian)國(guo)內(nei)車(che)(che)樁(zhuang)比能夠達(da)(da)到(dao)1:2.7的(de)(de)水平,按照我(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)對新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)銷售規(gui)(gui)模及(ji)保有(you)(you)(you)(you)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)預測,預計(ji)到(dao)2020年(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)需(xu)求(qiu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)在(zai)(zai)210萬(wan)個(ge)(ge)左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)。另(ling)外(wai)根據(ju)《汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)產業(ye)中長期發(fa)展(zhan)規(gui)(gui)劃》,到(dao)2025年(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)產銷水平將(jiang)達(da)(da)到(dao)700萬(wan)輛(liang),由此我(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)估算到(dao)2025年(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)保有(you)(you)(you)(you)量(liang)(liang)(liang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)望達(da)(da)到(dao)2609萬(wan)臺,相(xiang)應國(guo)內(nei)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)總需(xu)求(qiu)將(jiang)達(da)(da)到(dao)2609萬(wan)個(ge)(ge)
同時根據應用場(chang)(chang)景不同,可以(yi)(yi)確定直流(liu)及(ji)交流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比重。考慮到(dao)(dao)新能源(yuan)客車及(ji)專(zhuan)用車的(de)(de)運(yun)(yun)營性質需要配備充(chong)(chong)(chong)電時間較短(duan)的(de)(de)直流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang),我(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)(men)預(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)到(dao)(dao)2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)運(yun)(yun)營類新能源(yuan)汽車的(de)(de)保有(you)量有(you)望達到(dao)(dao)有(you)關(guan)分(fen)析(xi)師的(de)(de)申明,見本報告最(zui)后部分(fen)。其(qi)他(ta)重要信息披露見分(fen)析(xi)師申明之后部分(fen),或請與您的(de)(de)投(tou)資代表聯系。11165萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai),因此預(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)直流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)(de)需求(qiu)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)將在(zai)60萬(wan)(wan)個左(zuo)右(you),交流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)(de)需求(qiu)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)在(zai)150萬(wan)(wan)個左(zuo)右(you)。到(dao)(dao)2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)預(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)運(yun)(yun)營類新能源(yuan)汽車保有(you)量將增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)至(zhi)接近(jin)720萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai),直流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)需求(qiu)量也(ye)將擴大至(zhi)720萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai)左(zuo)右(you),相應的(de)(de)交流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)需求(qiu)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)將在(zai)1890萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai)左(zuo)右(you)。另外根據國網(wang)2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)招(zhao)標情況,直流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)(de)平均(jun)價(jia)(jia)格在(zai)1.16元(yuan)/W左(zuo)右(you),但由于(yu)國網(wang)招(zhao)標價(jia)(jia)格普遍高于(yu)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)價(jia)(jia)格,根據上市(shi)公司相關(guan)數據,我(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)(men)推測(ce)直流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)平均(jun)價(jia)(jia)格約為(wei)(wei)0.42元(yuan)/W,直流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)平均(jun)功(gong)率水平在(zai)60kW左(zuo)右(you),同時根據近(jin)幾(ji)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)國網(wang)招(zhao)標充(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)單價(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)下(xia)降(jiang)趨(qu)勢(shi),我(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)(men)假(jia)設(she)未來幾(ji)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)直流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)平均(jun)價(jia)(jia)格將以(yi)(yi)0.03元(yuan)/W的(de)(de)速度(du)下(xia)降(jiang)。交流(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)我(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)(men)假(jia)設(she)單價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)0.3萬(wan)(wan)元(yuan)/臺(tai),并在(zai)未來幾(ji)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)保持價(jia)(jia)格下(xia)降(jiang)趨(qu)勢(shi)。則2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)我(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)(men)預(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)上限(xian)將達到(dao)(dao)177億元(yuan),2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)上限(xian)將達到(dao)(dao)1290億元(yuan),2020-2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)累計(ji)(ji)(ji)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)CAGR達到(dao)(dao)48.8%,2020-2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)新增(zeng)(zeng)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)CAGR達到(dao)(dao)50.3%
如(ru)果(guo)按(an)照充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設施(shi)與電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動車(che)(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)發(fa)展速度相(xiang)匹配的(de)(de)情(qing)況預(yu)測,如(ru)果(guo)我們假設運營(ying)類(lei)(lei)(lei)新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)乘用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)車(che)(che)每(mei)天(tian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)64kWh,公交(jiao)車(che)(che)每(mei)天(tian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)104kWh,物流(liu)(liu)車(che)(che)每(mei)天(tian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)75kWh及私家車(che)(che)每(mei)天(tian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)16kWh,并按(an)照2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)能夠滿足(zu)(zu)35%,2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)能夠滿足(zu)(zu)100%的(de)(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)需(xu)求計(ji)算(suan),則(ze)到(dao)(dao)(dao)2020有關分(fen)析師的(de)(de)申明(ming),見本報告最后部分(fen)。12年(nian)(nian)(nian)國內(nei)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)總(zong)需(xu)求量(liang)(liang)將(jiang)(jiang)達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)216萬個(ge),2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)將(jiang)(jiang)突破1436萬個(ge),2020-2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)新(xin)增(zeng)市(shi)場(chang)規(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)CAGR達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)25%。同時根據(ju)不同車(che)(che)型充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)規(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)不同,可以確定直流(liu)(liu)及交(jiao)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比重。我們預(yu)計(ji)到(dao)(dao)(dao)2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)運營(ying)類(lei)(lei)(lei)新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)(che)的(de)(de)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)有望突破450億kWh,非運營(ying)類(lei)(lei)(lei)新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)(che)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)在230kWh以上(shang)(shang),因此預(yu)計(ji)直流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)(de)需(xu)求規(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)將(jiang)(jiang)在42萬個(ge)左右(you),交(jiao)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)(de)需(xu)求規(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)在170萬個(ge)左右(you)。到(dao)(dao)(dao)2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)預(yu)計(ji)運營(ying)類(lei)(lei)(lei)新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)(che)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)將(jiang)(jiang)增(zeng)長至接近1770kWh,非運營(ying)類(lei)(lei)(lei)新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)(che)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)在1100kWh以上(shang)(shang),直流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)需(xu)求量(liang)(liang)也將(jiang)(jiang)擴大至385萬臺左右(you),相(xiang)應的(de)(de)交(jiao)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)需(xu)求規(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)將(jiang)(jiang)在1050萬臺左右(you)。根據(ju)上(shang)(shang)述對充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)單價的(de)(de)預(yu)期,2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)我們預(yu)計(ji)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)市(shi)場(chang)規(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)下限將(jiang)(jiang)達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)140億元,2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)市(shi)場(chang)規(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)下限將(jiang)(jiang)達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)770億元,2020-2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)累計(ji)市(shi)場(chang)規(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)CAGR達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)40%,2020-2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)新(xin)增(zeng)市(shi)場(chang)規(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)CAGR達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)25%。
政策逐步落地,多方面引(yin)導充電樁市(shi)場快速(su)發展
2014年以(yi)來,國家及(ji)(ji)地方政府針(zhen)對充(chong)電樁(zhuang)各(ge)個環節相繼推出多項(xiang)鼓勵政策(ce)(ce),旨在從產(chan)品兼(jian)容(rong)性、建(jian)設(she)(she)布點(dian)、設(she)(she)備投資(zi)、電價政策(ce)(ce)及(ji)(ji)運營(ying)維護等多個維度激發各(ge)方力量參與充(chong)電設(she)(she)施建(jian)設(she)(she)之中(zhong)(zhong),并(bing)著力降低充(chong)電設(she)(she)施建(jian)設(she)(she)過(guo)程中(zhong)(zhong)可能面臨的(de)各(ge)種困難,引導充(chong)電樁(zhuang)市場進入快(kuai)速發展軌道。
產品側新國標推出,互聯互通趨勢增強
首(shou)先為(wei)解(jie)決充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)和樁(zhuang)之間(jian)、車和樁(zhuang)之間(jian)的(de)互聯互通障礙,2015年(nian)底國家質檢(jian)總局等部門(men)發布新(xin)國標(biao),對充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)設(she)施、充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)接口、充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)站建設(she)運(yun)行、充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)站建設(she)運(yun)行、充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)服(fu)務等方面(mian)進行較為(wei)全面(mian)的(de)標(biao)準建設(she),全面(mian)提升了充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)的(de)安全性(xing)與兼容性(xing)。國家電(dian)(dian)網在2017年(nian)4月發布《關(guan)于開展充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)新(xin)國標(biao)改造升級的(de)通知》,涉及(ji)2010年(nian)以(yi)來建設(she)的(de)共計43818臺充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang),目前(qian)除部分舊標(biao)準充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)留存以(yi)服(fu)務舊車用戶外,大(da)部分充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)已完成升級改造,對充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)產業的(de)規范發展奠定(ding)堅(jian)實(shi)基礎(chu)
充電設(she)施建設(she)納入土建規(gui)劃
在建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)布點方面,2015年(nian)國務(wu)(wu)院(yuan)在《關于加快電(dian)(dian)動汽(qi)車(che)(che)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)基礎(chu)設(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)(shi)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)的指(zhi)導意見(jian)》中強調鼓勵充(chong)電(dian)(dian)服務(wu)(wu)、物業(ye)服務(wu)(wu)等企業(ye)參與(yu)居(ju)民區充(chong)電(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)(shi)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)運營管(guan)理(li),統一(yi)開(kai)展停(ting)(ting)車(che)(che)位(wei)(wei)改造(zao),原則上新建(jian)(jian)住宅配件(jian)停(ting)(ting)車(che)(che)位(wei)(wei)應100%建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)(shi)或預(yu)留建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)安(an)裝條件(jian),大型(xing)公共建(jian)(jian)筑物配建(jian)(jian)停(ting)(ting)車(che)(che)場(chang)、社(she)會公共停(ting)(ting)車(che)(che)場(chang)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)(shi)或預(yu)留建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)安(an)裝條件(jian)的車(che)(che)位(wei)(wei)比例不低于10%。同年(nian)在《電(dian)(dian)動汽(qi)車(che)(che)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)基礎(chu)設(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)(shi)發展指(zhi)南(2015-2020)》中更加具(ju)體的提出分(fen)(fen)區域和分(fen)(fen)場(chang)所的建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)目標(biao)。
補貼從前端購置逐步轉向支持(chi)充(chong)電(dian)設施及運營(ying)
在(zai)推廣補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)方(fang)面(mian),2016年1月(yue)財(cai)(cai)政(zheng)部、工信(xin)部、發改委及能(neng)源(yuan)局聯(lian)合發布(bu)《關于“十三五”新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)車充(chong)電(dian)(dian)基礎(chu)設施獎勵政(zheng)策及加強(qiang)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)車推廣應用的(de)通知(zhi)》,提出對新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)車推廣規模較大的(de)省市區安排獎勵資金用以(yi)補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)基礎(chu)設施建(jian)(jian)設及運(yun)營(ying),首次將新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)車充(chong)電(dian)(dian)設施建(jian)(jian)設環(huan)(huan)節(jie)與購置(zhi)環(huan)(huan)節(jie)的(de)補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)相(xiang)聯(lian)系。在(zai)2018年11月(yue)發布(bu)的(de)《提升新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)車充(chong)電(dian)(dian)保障能(neng)力(li)行(xing)動計劃》中(zhong),再次強(qiang)調引導(dao)地方(fang)財(cai)(cai)政(zheng)補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)從補(bu)(bu)購置(zhi)轉向補(bu)(bu)運(yun)營(ying),逐漸將地方(fang)財(cai)(cai)政(zheng)購置(zhi)補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)轉向支(zhi)持充(chong)電(dian)(dian)基礎(chu)設施建(jian)(jian)設和運(yun)營(ying)等(deng)環(huan)(huan)節(jie)。
充電設(she)施建(jian)設(she)及后續(xu)運營環節補貼(tie)落地
在(zai)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)建設(she)及后(hou)續運(yun)營(ying)環(huan)(huan)節(jie),各省市均提出具體(ti)補貼(tie)(tie)(tie)政策,在(zai)建設(she)環(huan)(huan)節(jie)從設(she)備總(zong)投(tou)(tou)資額(e)(e)或(huo)單個設(she)備功(gong)率等(deng)方(fang)面進(jin)行一定(ding)比例或(huo)金(jin)額(e)(e)的(de)補貼(tie)(tie)(tie)。如(ru)從投(tou)(tou)資總(zong)額(e)(e)角度,北(bei)京(jing)地(di)區可以申(shen)請不高于項目總(zong)投(tou)(tou)資額(e)(e)30%的(de)固(gu)定(ding)資產補助資金(jin)、廈門對(dui)公(gong)共充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁設(she)施(shi)按(an)(an)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁設(she)備投(tou)(tou)資額(e)(e)給予20%的(de)補貼(tie)(tie)(tie),對(dui)專(zhuan)用充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)給予40%的(de)補貼(tie)(tie)(tie);從單個設(she)備功(gong)率角度,廣州(zhou)對(dui)直流充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁按(an)(an)照(zhao)550元(yuan)/kW,交流充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁按(an)(an)照(zhao)150元(yuan)/kW的(de)標準(zhun)進(jin)行補貼(tie)(tie)(tie)。在(zai)后(hou)續運(yun)營(ying)環(huan)(huan)節(jie),針對(dui)年度運(yun)營(ying)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量或(huo)安(an)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)設(she)備額(e)(e)定(ding)功(gong)率等(deng)方(fang)面進(jin)行補貼(tie)(tie)(tie)。如(ru)上(shang)海(hai)對(dui)公(gong)交、環(huan)(huan)衛等(deng)行業(ye)充(chong)(chong)(chong)換電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)按(an)(an)0.1元(yuan)/kWh標準(zhun)補貼(tie)(tie)(tie),千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)功(gong)率每年補貼(tie)(tie)(tie)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量上(shang)限(xian)(xian)為(wei)2000kWh,其他(ta)公(gong)用充(chong)(chong)(chong)換電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)按(an)(an)0.2元(yuan)/kWh標準(zhun)補貼(tie)(tie)(tie),千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)功(gong)率每年補貼(tie)(tie)(tie)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量上(shang)限(xian)(xian)為(wei)1000kWh;三亞以設(she)備安(an)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)額(e)(e)定(ding)功(gong)率為(wei)基數(shu),每千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)補貼(tie)(tie)(tie)不超(chao)過(guo)200元(yuan)/年。
實行扶持性電(dian)價政策
另外針(zhen)對(dui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)格,國家及(ji)地方政(zheng)(zheng)府也發(fa)布相(xiang)關(guan)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)以(yi)對(dui)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)換(huan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)實(shi)行(xing)扶持(chi)(chi)性(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)。2014年7月22日發(fa)改委發(fa)布《關(guan)于電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車(che)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)格政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)有(you)(you)(you)關(guan)問題的(de)(de)(de)(de)通(tong)(tong)知(zhi)》,主要內容(rong)包括:一是(shi)對(dui)向電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)經營企(qi)業直(zhi)(zhi)接(jie)(jie)報(bao)(bao)裝接(jie)(jie)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)經營性(xing)集(ji)中(zhong)式充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)換(huan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),執(zhi)行(xing)大工業用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)格,并在(zai)2018年7月再次再次發(fa)文明確針(zhen)對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車(che)集(ji)中(zhong)式充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)換(huan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)免收基本(ben)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)費的(de)(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)延長至2025年。二(er)是(shi)其(qi)他充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)按其(qi)所在(zai)場(chang)所執(zhi)行(xing)分類目錄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)。三(san)是(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)換(huan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)執(zhi)行(xing)峰谷(gu)分時電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)。鼓勵電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車(che)在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)低谷(gu)時段充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),提(ti)高(gao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統利(li)用(yong)效率(lv)(lv)。四是(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)公司不得向充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站收取(qu)接(jie)(jie)網(wang)費用(yong)。以(yi)上一系(xi)列政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce),從(cong)前端產品標準(zhun)、建設(she)布點、推(tui)廣補貼(tie)、設(she)施(shi)建設(she)到(dao)(dao)中(zhong)后(hou)端的(de)(de)(de)(de)運營補貼(tie)、扶持(chi)(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)實(shi)現全(quan)覆蓋,相(xiang)關(guan)扶持(chi)(chi)措施(shi)貫穿(chuan)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)建設(she)始(shi)終,從(cong)多(duo)維度全(quan)面降低建設(she)及(ji)運維難度,提(ti)高(gao)民間資本(ben)投入積極性(xing),對(dui)我國充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)市場(chang)實(shi)現從(cong)初步(bu)試水(shui)到(dao)(dao)高(gao)速成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)長期的(de)(de)(de)(de)較(jiao)快過(guo)渡起到(dao)(dao)極大推(tui)動(dong)(dong)作(zuo)用(yong)。設(she)備(bei)端短期競爭激烈,中(zhong)長期大功(gong)率(lv)(lv)趨(qu)勢提(ti)升集(ji)中(zhong)度前面提(ti)到(dao)(dao)直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)與交(jiao)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)核心區別(bie)在(zai)于交(jiao)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)僅提(ti)供(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力輸(shu)出(chu)功(gong)能,而直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)需要通(tong)(tong)過(guo)整(zheng)流(liu)(liu)裝置(zhi)(zhi)將交(jiao)流(liu)(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)轉(zhuan)為直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),隨后(hou)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)功(gong)率(lv)(lv)變換(huan)裝置(zhi)(zhi)轉(zhuan)換(huan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)所需的(de)(de)(de)(de)直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)輸(shu)出(chu)。因有(you)(you)(you)關(guan)分析師的(de)(de)(de)(de)申(shen)明,見本(ben)報(bao)(bao)告最后(hou)部分。此交(jiao)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)通(tong)(tong)常體(ti)積較(jiao)小,結(jie)構(gou)較(jiao)為簡單(dan),主要由(you)人(ren)(ren)機(ji)界(jie)面、控(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)模(mo)塊、充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)接(jie)(jie)口、供(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)接(jie)(jie)口、計(ji)量單(dan)元(yuan)(yuan)(即(ji)智(zhi)能電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)表)組成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)。而直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)通(tong)(tong)常由(you)功(gong)率(lv)(lv)單(dan)元(yuan)(yuan)(即(ji)直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)塊)、控(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)單(dan)元(yuan)(yuan)(即(ji)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)控(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)器)、計(ji)量單(dan)元(yuan)(yuan)、充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)接(jie)(jie)口、供(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)接(jie)(jie)口及(ji)人(ren)(ren)機(ji)交(jiao)互界(jie)面組成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)。充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)塊由(you)三(san)相(xiang)無源(yuan)PFC和DC/DC兩個功(gong)率(lv)(lv)部分組成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng),前者由(you)開關(guan)器件IGBT及(ji)PWM整(zheng)流(liu)(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)路(lu)構(gou)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng),以(yi)實(shi)現整(zheng)流(liu)(liu)變換(huan)。成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)結(jie)構(gou)方面,由(you)于直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)結(jie)構(gou)更(geng)為復雜且單(dan)機(ji)價(jia)值(zhi)量較(jiao)大,因此我們以(yi)直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)為例(li)。根據英可(ke)瑞及(ji)新能源(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)網(wang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)關(guan)數據,直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)原(yuan)材料成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)占(zhan)到(dao)(dao)總成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)的(de)(de)(de)(de)93%,人(ren)(ren)工及(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)造成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)僅占(zhan)7%左右。其(qi)中(zhong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)塊占(zhan)原(yuan)材料成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)的(de)(de)(de)(de)50%,APF有(you)(you)(you)源(yuan)濾波占(zhan)15%,電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)維護及(ji)監(jian)控(kong)設(she)備(bei)占(zhan)20%,外殼、接(jie)(jie)口等配套(tao)設(she)備(bei)占(zhan)15%
技術門檻及產品差異(yi)化程度決定競爭格局及盈利空間
充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)產品(pin)從技(ji)術(shu)(shu)層(ceng)面來(lai)看(kan)同質化(hua)(hua)程度較(jiao)高(gao)。充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)主要(yao)由充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)、充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)槍(qiang)、斷路(lu)器(qi)、接觸器(qi)、濾(lv)波器(qi)、插座(zuo)插頭、線(xian)纜及外(wai)(wai)殼(ke)底座(zuo)等(deng)部(bu)分構成(cheng)(cheng),其中充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)決(jue)定(ding)(ding)了充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)效(xiao)率及穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing),是(shi)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)(de)(de)核(he)心(xin)環節,占(zhan)到充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)總成(cheng)(cheng)本的(de)(de)(de)50%左右(you)。直流充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)由于(yu)額定(ding)(ding)功率較(jiao)大,充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)效(xiao)率要(yao)求較(jiao)高(gao),其充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)以(yi)IGBT高(gao)頻開(kai)(kai)關作為(wei)(wei)核(he)心(xin)元器(qi)件,且對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)路(lu)優化(hua)(hua)設(she)計有更高(gao)要(yao)求,因此技(ji)術(shu)(shu)壁(bi)壘(lei)相對較(jiao)高(gao)。對于(yu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)設(she)備制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)而(er)言(yan),產品(pin)核(he)心(xin)差(cha)(cha)異(yi)化(hua)(hua)在(zai)(zai)于(yu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)效(xiao)率。而(er)提升充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)效(xiao)率的(de)(de)(de)關鍵(jian)(jian)因素一方(fang)面在(zai)(zai)于(yu)核(he)心(xin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)子元器(qi)件的(de)(de)(de)性(xing)(xing)能(neng),另一方(fang)面在(zai)(zai)于(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)整體電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)路(lu)結(jie)構方(fang)案的(de)(de)(de)優越性(xing)(xing)。由于(yu)核(he)心(xin)部(bu)件IGBT尚不(bu)能(neng)實現國(guo)產化(hua)(hua),主要(yao)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)均從海外(wai)(wai)品(pin)牌(pai)處購買,因此各制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)路(lu)設(she)計能(neng)力成(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)(wei)決(jue)定(ding)(ding)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)差(cha)(cha)異(yi)化(hua)(hua)水平的(de)(de)(de)關鍵(jian)(jian)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)的(de)(de)(de)核(he)心(xin)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)主要(yao)體現為(wei)(wei)功率校正技(ji)術(shu)(shu)、軟(ruan)開(kai)(kai)關技(ji)術(shu)(shu)、磁性(xing)(xing)元器(qi)件技(ji)術(shu)(shu)、功率開(kai)(kai)關驅動技(ji)術(shu)(shu)以(yi)及主電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)路(lu)的(de)(de)(de)控制(zhi)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)。目(mu)前(qian)國(guo)內主要(yao)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)供應(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)均在(zai)(zai)以(yi)上技(ji)術(shu)(shu)領域有自己的(de)(de)(de)zhuanli積累(lei),且峰值效(xiao)率基本均在(zai)(zai)95-96%左右(you)。因此產品(pin)整體同質化(hua)(hua)程度較(jiao)高(gao)。
由于(yu)(yu)產品(pin)差(cha)異化程度(du)并不(bu)明顯(xian),且技術(shu)門檻(jian)不(bu)高(gao),疊加政府鼓勵及(ji)資(zi)本(ben)投(tou)資(zi)熱情高(gao)漲(zhang)等因(yin)素影響(xiang),導致參與行業(ye)競(jing)爭的企(qi)(qi)業(ye)數量(liang)(liang)較(jiao)多。自國家電(dian)(dian)網(wang)2014年向(xiang)民(min)間資(zi)本(ben)開(kai)放充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)市(shi)場后,在(zai)大力鼓勵民(min)間資(zi)本(ben)投(tou)資(zi)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)建(jian)設的風口下,一大批充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)公司應(ying)運而生,目前國內充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)領域相關公司數量(liang)(liang)超過300家,根據國網(wang)招標情況,2015年國網(wang)三批招標的11338臺(tai)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)中共有16家企(qi)(qi)業(ye)中標,CR5為54.7%,2018年三批招標14262臺(tai)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)中共有31家企(qi)(qi)業(ye)中標,CR5為50.1%。由此可見目前在(zai)設備制造(zao)環節,由于(yu)(yu)技術(shu)門檻(jian)相對較(jiao)低(di),產品(pin)差(cha)異化程度(du)不(bu)高(gao),因(yin)此供應(ying)商數量(liang)(liang)較(jiao)多,且競(jing)爭較(jiao)為激烈。
另一(yi)方(fang)面技術門檻較(jiao)低及產品(pin)差異化程(cheng)度(du)較(jiao)小也導(dao)致價(jia)格(ge)(ge)競爭成為獲取(qu)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)市(shi)場份額的關鍵。根據國網歷(li)史招(zhao)(zhao)標(biao)(biao)情況,直(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)招(zhao)(zhao)標(biao)(biao)單價(jia)呈(cheng)下(xia)(xia)降趨勢(shi)。2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)直(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)招(zhao)(zhao)標(biao)(biao)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)在1.8元(yuan)(yuan)/W左右(you)(you)(you),2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)第三(san)批(pi)招(zhao)(zhao)標(biao)(biao)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)至(zhi)(zhi)1.33元(yuan)(yuan)/W,下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)26%;2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)第三(san)批(pi)招(zhao)(zhao)標(biao)(biao)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)下(xia)(xia)降至(zhi)(zhi)1.15元(yuan)(yuan)/W;到2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)招(zhao)(zhao)標(biao)(biao)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)在1元(yuan)(yuan)/W左右(you)(you)(you),2015-2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)國網招(zhao)(zhao)標(biao)(biao)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)累計(ji)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)44%以上。交(jiao)流(liu)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)由于(yu)技術門檻不高,導(dao)致價(jia)格(ge)(ge)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)速度(du)較(jiao)快,2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)國網招(zhao)(zhao)標(biao)(biao)交(jiao)流(liu)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)的平(ping)(ping)均(jun)單臺價(jia)格(ge)(ge)在1.5萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)左右(you)(you)(you),而(er)到20181該價(jia)格(ge)(ge)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)至(zhi)(zhi)0.6萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)左右(you)(you)(you),累計(ji)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)幅度(du)達(da)到60%。另外各主要充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)設備供應(ying)商毛(mao)利(li)率水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)也呈(cheng)現下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)態勢(shi),2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)行業(ye)(ye)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)毛(mao)利(li)率水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)在38.8%左右(you)(you)(you),到2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)上半年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)行業(ye)(ye)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)毛(mao)利(li)率水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)至(zhi)(zhi)32.3%左右(you)(you)(you),累計(ji)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)6.5pct左右(you)(you)(you)。我們預計(ji)短(duan)期內(nei)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)行業(ye)(ye)競爭格(ge)(ge)局不會出現較(jiao)大變化,疊加直(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)供應(ying)商相對(dui)運營商議價(jia)能(neng)力較(jiao)弱,及交(jiao)流(liu)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)需要面臨由于(yu)新能(neng)源汽車補貼退坡帶來的成本壓力等因(yin)素影響(xiang),預計(ji)短(duan)期內(nei)行業(ye)(ye)盈利(li)能(neng)力存在進(jin)一(yi)步下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)可能(neng)。
大功率(lv)充電成趨(qu)勢(shi),產業協(xie)同發展成關鍵
中(zhong)長期來(lai)看(kan),大(da)(da)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設備需求凸(tu)顯,產業(ye)協(xie)同發展成關(guan)鍵。一方面(mian)(mian)大(da)(da)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設備能(neng)夠(gou)滿足用(yong)(yong)戶快速充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)需求。假設電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動車(che)百(bai)公里耗電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量在(zai)20kWh左(zuo)右(you),續航里程在(zai)400KM的(de)(de)情(qing)況(kuang)下,電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池容(rong)量為(wei)80kWh,在(zai)理想情(qing)況(kuang)下,用(yong)(yong)戶僅在(zai)10分(fen)鐘左(zuo)右(you)就能(neng)完成充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)過程,則充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)容(rong)量需要在(zai)400kW左(zuo)右(you)。根(gen)據(ju)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)聯盟對(dui)快速充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)領域的(de)(de)專項調研,日(ri)本對(dui)快充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)相對(dui)謹慎,到(dao)2025年才計(ji)劃將(jiang)(jiang)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)提升(sheng)至350kW,而由(you)(you)于歐美地區由(you)(you)大(da)(da)型整(zheng)車(che)廠主(zhu)導,預計(ji)將(jiang)(jiang)在(zai)2020年將(jiang)(jiang)快速充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)定(ding)義為(wei)350-400kW,充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)最大(da)(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)(liu)將(jiang)(jiang)達(da)到(dao)500A。另外根(gen)據(ju)國網歷史招標情(qing)況(kuang),直流(liu)(liu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)也呈現上升(sheng)趨勢。2018年第(di)三批充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)招標的(de)(de)平(ping)均功(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)為(wei)103kW,且最高(gao)(gao)(gao)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)已(yi)經達(da)到(dao)450kW,但占比最高(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)仍然(ran)在(zai)60kW。根(gen)據(ju)國內(nei)量產新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)車(che)的(de)(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)(liu)數(shu)據(ju),乘(cheng)用(yong)(yong)車(che)方面(mian)(mian)目前電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓平(ping)臺(tai)普(pu)(pu)遍(bian)在(zai)240-250V之間,最高(gao)(gao)(gao)能(neng)夠(gou)達(da)到(dao)750V,充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)(liu)普(pu)(pu)遍(bian)在(zai)0-200A之間,最大(da)(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)(liu)可(ke)達(da)到(dao)240A。商用(yong)(yong)車(che)方面(mian)(mian),電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓平(ping)臺(tai)普(pu)(pu)遍(bian)在(zai)200-830V之間,充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)(liu)普(pu)(pu)遍(bian)在(zai)0-500A之間,最大(da)(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)(liu)可(ke)達(da)600A。因此乘(cheng)用(yong)(yong)車(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)普(pu)(pu)遍(bian)在(zai)50-100kW,最高(gao)(gao)(gao)已(yi)經達(da)到(dao)150kW,商用(yong)(yong)車(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)普(pu)(pu)遍(bian)在(zai)200-350kW,最高(gao)(gao)(gao)可(ke)以接(jie)近(jin)500kW。無論從消費(fei)者需求還(huan)是電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽車(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)上來(lai)看(kan),當前主(zhu)流(liu)(liu)的(de)(de)60-100kW的(de)(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)已(yi)不能(neng)滿足行業(ye)發展需求。
另(ling)外,大功(gong)率(lv)充(chong)電設備的(de)(de)(de)使用將有(you)助于提(ti)升充(chong)電站投(tou)資(zi)回(hui)報率(lv)。我們假(jia)設充(chong)電設備平(ping)均單價為(wei)0.42元/W,每日累計(ji)充(chong)電小時(shi)數(shu)為(wei)4小時(shi),折(zhe)舊年(nian)限為(wei)10年(nian),用電損耗(hao)為(wei)8%,政府對充(chong)電設備的(de)(de)(de)補(bu)貼標準按照上(shang)海的(de)(de)(de)相關規定(ding),即單樁(zhuang)補(bu)貼30%。根據以(yi)上(shang)假(jia)設,我們分別計(ji)算30、60、90、120及150kW單樁(zhuang)的(de)(de)(de)投(tou)資(zi)回(hui)報率(lv)及成(cheng)本(ben)回(hui)收(shou)期。隨著充(chong)電樁(zhuang)功(gong)率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)提(ti)升,單樁(zhuang)投(tou)資(zi)回(hui)報率(lv)不斷(duan)上(shang)升,成(cheng)本(ben)回(hui)收(shou)期不斷(duan)縮短。根據計(ji)算,單樁(zhuang)投(tou)資(zi)回(hui)報率(lv)從(cong)30kW的(de)(de)(de)7.3%提(ti)升至150kW的(de)(de)(de)16.9%,單樁(zhuang)動態成(cheng)本(ben)回(hui)收(shou)期也從(cong)30kW的(de)(de)(de)8.15縮短至150kW的(de)(de)(de)4.88。以(yi)上(shang)數(shu)據說(shuo)明從(cong)運營商(shang)角度,大功(gong)率(lv)充(chong)電設備具備較強的(de)(de)(de)經濟(ji)性,其需(xu)求確(que)定(ding)性逐漸增強。
大(da)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)具備(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)較強增(zeng)長確定性(xing)的(de)背景下(xia),大(da)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)的(de)發展趨勢也將逐漸清晰(xi)。從控制(zhi)(zhi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)角度,充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)的(de)適度提(ti)升(sheng)將有助于減少單瓦(wa)原材料的(de)消耗,提(ti)升(sheng)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)密(mi)度,降(jiang)(jiang)低單瓦(wa)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben),幫助設(she)(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造商提(ti)升(sheng)盈利(li)空間,有效抵(di)御充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)持續降(jiang)(jiang)價(jia)的(de)趨勢。以目前主流的(de)20kW及30kW模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)為(wei)例,我們假設(she)(she)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)水(shui)平為(wei)120kW,且單瓦(wa)價(jia)格在0.5元/W左右,充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)占到(dao)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)總成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)的(de)約50%,按照(zhao)2017年充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)及模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)制(zhi)(zhi)造商大(da)致毛利(li)率(lv)水(shui)平,則能計算(suan)(suan)得到(dao)20kW模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)的(de)單瓦(wa)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)在0.11元/W左右。在假設(she)(she)30kW充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)單瓦(wa)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)與20kW相(xiang)同情(qing)況下(xia),由于并聯模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)數量(liang)的(de)降(jiang)(jiang)低,經計算(suan)(suan)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)毛利(li)率(lv)水(shui)平相(xiang)比(bi)于20kW將能夠提(ti)升(sheng)2pct
而大(da)功率模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)(kuai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠幫助提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)盈(ying)利空間的(de)(de)(de)(de)前提(ti)是制造商能(neng)(neng)(neng)有效控(kong)制大(da)功率模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)(kuai)工(gong)藝及原(yuan)材(cai)料成本的(de)(de)(de)(de)提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)。大(da)功率模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)(kuai)成本提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)環節包括(kuo)高(gao)(gao)電(dian)(dian)壓IGBT產(chan)品價格的(de)(de)(de)(de)提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)、電(dian)(dian)子元器件(jian)質量的(de)(de)(de)(de)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)及交(jiao)流變直流環節散(san)熱管理能(neng)(neng)(neng)力的(de)(de)(de)(de)上升(sheng)(sheng)等。我們(men)認為(wei)解決(jue)成本提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)因素(su)的(de)(de)(de)(de)關鍵一(yi)是在(zai)于(yu)(yu)規模(mo)(mo)化采(cai)購能(neng)(neng)(neng)力,二是在(zai)于(yu)(yu)技(ji)術(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)積累。由(you)于(yu)(yu)高(gao)(gao)功率模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)(kuai)相比(bi)于(yu)(yu)低(di)功率模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)(kuai)生(sheng)產(chan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)挑戰(zhan)一(yi)是電(dian)(dian)子元器件(jian)性能(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng),二是電(dian)(dian)路(lu)結(jie)構設計的(de)(de)(de)(de)優化。對(dui)于(yu)(yu)前者(zhe)而言,由(you)于(yu)(yu)充電(dian)(dian)樁核(he)(he)心零部件(jian)IGBT尚(shang)依(yi)賴進口,尤其(qi)越是生(sheng)產(chan)高(gao)(gao)功率模(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)(kuai),對(dui)IGBT的(de)(de)(de)(de)性能(neng)(neng)(neng)和穩(wen)定(ding)性要(yao)求越高(gao)(gao),國(guo)內企業相對(dui)于(yu)(yu)IGBT供應商的(de)(de)(de)(de)議價能(neng)(neng)(neng)力越弱,能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠實(shi)現(xian)IGBT等核(he)(he)心電(dian)(dian)子元器件(jian)成本相對(dui)優勢的(de)(de)(de)(de)最(zui)佳方式(shi)即(ji)通過大(da)規模(mo)(mo)采(cai)購確(que)保供貨量并(bing)降低(di)采(cai)購價格;對(dui)于(yu)(yu)后者(zhe),在(zai)電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)子技(ji)術(shu)領(ling)域的(de)(de)(de)(de)技(ji)術(shu)積累成為(wei)控(kong)制成本的(de)(de)(de)(de)關鍵。在(zai)同源技(ji)術(shu)領(ling)域有較深(shen)技(ji)術(shu)沉淀與實(shi)踐的(de)(de)(de)(de)企業能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠較為(wei)容易的(de)(de)(de)(de)將成功經(jing)驗進行移植,大(da)幅減少研發投入及電(dian)(dian)路(lu)測試成本。
但(dan)大(da)功(gong)率(lv)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)當前(qian)推廣進程(cheng)也(ye)面臨著一(yi)些挑戰(zhan)。首先,在(zai)(zai)(zai)散熱(re)(re)方(fang)(fang)面,大(da)功(gong)率(lv)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)應用(yong)一(yi)方(fang)(fang)面需(xu)要(yao)(yao)對充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)本(ben)身(shen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)散熱(re)(re)功(gong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)進行強化(hua)。除考(kao)慮充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模塊(kuai)外,充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁的(de)(de)(de)(de)連(lian)接環節如電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)及充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)槍等(deng)也(ye)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)解(jie)決(jue)(jue)散熱(re)(re)問(wen)題(ti);另(ling)(ling)一(yi)方(fang)(fang)面也(ye)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)考(kao)慮大(da)功(gong)率(lv)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)對汽(qi)車(che)(che)本(ben)身(shen)帶來(lai)(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響(xiang),提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓情(qing)況下將(jiang)對車(che)(che)輛的(de)(de)(de)(de)絕緣等(deng)級提(ti)(ti)(ti)出更高要(yao)(yao)求,對車(che)(che)輛電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)子(zi)元器(qi)件的(de)(de)(de)(de)要(yao)(yao)求將(jiang)提(ti)(ti)(ti)高,這將(jiang)會增加(jia)車(che)(che)輛的(de)(de)(de)(de)整體造價(jia);提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流的(de)(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況下就必然(ran)會帶來(lai)(lai)發熱(re)(re)問(wen)題(ti),解(jie)決(jue)(jue)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)過程(cheng)中的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)散熱(re)(re)問(wen)題(ti)成為關鍵。其次,在(zai)(zai)(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動車(che)(che)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)技(ji)術方(fang)(fang)面,充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)速度一(yi)方(fang)(fang)面取決(jue)(jue)于(yu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠輸出功(gong)率(lv)大(da)小(xiao),另(ling)(ling)一(yi)方(fang)(fang)面也(ye)取決(jue)(jue)于(yu)汽(qi)車(che)(che)端能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠接受(shou)功(gong)率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)小(xiao),關鍵指標在(zai)(zai)(zai)于(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)倍率(lv)。若在(zai)(zai)(zai)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)過程(cheng)中通過加(jia)大(da)功(gong)率(lv)提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)速度,但(dan)離子(zi)與電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)子(zi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)擴(kuo)散速度不匹配,仍然(ran)無法增加(jia)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)速度,更會對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)性能(neng)(neng)(neng)造成損傷。我們(men)假(jia)設(she)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽(qi)車(che)(che)續航里程(cheng)500km,百公里耗電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量為16kWh,在(zai)(zai)(zai)臨時補電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)情(qing)況下,假(jia)設(she)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)后(hou)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)行駛(shi)里程(cheng)為200km,若想(xiang)在(zai)(zai)(zai)10-20分鐘(zhong)(zhong)左(zuo)右(you)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)完(wan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),則需(xu)要(yao)(yao)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁功(gong)率(lv)在(zai)(zai)(zai)100-200kW左(zuo)右(you),同時電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動車(che)(che)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)倍率(lv)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2-3C之(zhi)間。而(er)未來(lai)(lai)在(zai)(zai)(zai)完(wan)全充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)滿(man)情(qing)況下,若想(xiang)保持(chi)20-30分鐘(zhong)(zhong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)滿(man)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),則需(xu)要(yao)(yao)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁功(gong)率(lv)在(zai)(zai)(zai)160-240kW左(zuo)右(you),電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)倍率(lv)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2.5-4C之(zhi)間。目前(qian)我國(guo)乘用(yong)車(che)(che)用(yong)鋰(li)離子(zi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)倍率(lv)已達到2C水平,但(dan)未來(lai)(lai)繼續提(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)至3C,甚至4C的(de)(de)(de)(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)倍率(lv)仍然(ran)面臨較多(duo)考(kao)驗(yan)。
最后(hou),在電(dian)(dian)(dian)網負(fu)(fu)荷(he)方面(mian),如果(guo)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)包含大(da)(da)功率充電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)數(shu)量較多,且大(da)(da)量電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)在同一時間一起充電(dian)(dian)(dian)情(qing)況(kuang)下,對現有(you)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網可(ke)能造(zao)成較大(da)(da)壓力。另外(wai)諧波污染(ran)也是充電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)對配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)能質(zhi)量的(de)(de)主(zhu)要影響因素。充電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)鏈(lian)接城(cheng)市電(dian)(dian)(dian)網,配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網必然(ran)會受到(dao)其產(chan)生的(de)(de)諧波污染(ran)的(de)(de)影響,從(cong)而產(chan)生電(dian)(dian)(dian)路(lu)損(sun)耗(hao)和發熱(re)量增加(jia)。由此可(ke)見,大(da)(da)功率充電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)的(de)(de)發展(zhan)仍(reng)在設(she)備(bei)本(ben)身、電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池技(ji)術及電(dian)(dian)(dian)網負(fu)(fu)荷(he)等(deng)方面(mian)存在技(ji)術難關,需要新能源汽車(che)產(chan)業(ye)鏈(lian)上下游協同發展(zhan)。
我們認(ren)為伴隨(sui)充電(dian)設備大功(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)趨勢(shi)的(de)(de)持(chi)續凸顯(xian),缺乏技術積累及成本優勢(shi),僅能生(sheng)產中(zhong)小功(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)充電(dian)模(mo)塊及設備的(de)(de)企業(ye)將(jiang)不(bu)斷受到(dao)下(xia)游客戶的(de)(de)價格(ge)壓(ya)力(li)(li),盈利(li)空間將(jiang)受到(dao)持(chi)續壓(ya)縮,并最終(zhong)被市場淘汰,具(ju)備大功(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)模(mo)塊及設備生(sheng)產能力(li)(li)的(de)(de)企業(ye)集中(zhong)度有(you)望得到(dao)提(ti)升,同(tong)時預計伴隨(sui)大功(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)設備經濟性的(de)(de)凸顯(xian),下(xia)游對設備制造企業(ye)的(de)(de)價格(ge)壓(ya)力(li)(li)將(jiang)有(you)所緩解,設備制造環節盈利(li)能力(li)(li)將(jiang)逐步趨穩。